Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 16 December 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The economy lost 105K jobs for October 2025, according to Non-Farm Payrolls, after a gain of 119K in September 2025.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Non-Farm Private Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $87,367.60 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.5% lower, and an hour later 0.49% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.92% of its price, against 0.57% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.16x, against 3.21x for a typical Non-Farm Payrolls release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.13x, against a typical 4.71x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Non-Farm Payrolls releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 3.15x across 21, against 3.22x across 49. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.16x compares with 3.22x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Non-Farm Payrolls releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 3.21x.
About Non-Farm Payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications. This is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which surveys private and government entities throughout the U.S. about their payrolls. The BLS reports the nonfarm payroll numbers to the public on a monthly basis through the closely followed “Employment Situation” report.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
85,910.61Close
87,760.4724h Change
1849.86 (2.11%)24h High
88,175.9824h Low
85,266.0024h Volume
18,193 BTCUS Non-Farm Payrolls
Bureau of Labor Statistics
16th December, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Published with later months (US federal government shutdown). These figures were published together with later months in a single release, so the reaction shown belongs to all of them, not to this period alone. This was during the US federal government shutdown.
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 87224.52 | 87440.13 | 87223.92 | 87367.60 | 0.16% | 0.25% | 40 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 87204.23 | 87370.32 | 0.00% | 0.66% | 250 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87382.34 | 87566.59 | 87223.92 | 87367.60 | -0.02% | 0.39% | 231 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86866.91 | 86867.25 | -0.58% | 1.05% | 481 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87299.32 | 87566.59 | 87214.99 | 87367.60 | 0.08% | 0.40% | 311 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86761.44 | 87080.73 | -0.33% | 1.17% | 678 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87218.07 | 87566.59 | 87214.99 | 87367.60 | 0.17% | 0.40% | 387 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86761.44 | 86933.99 | -0.50% | 1.17% | 851 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 87212.98 | 87566.59 | 87064.75 | 87367.60 | 0.18% | 0.57% | 648 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86410.01 | 86443.02 | -1.07% | 1.57% | 1,496 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 87146.73 | 87566.59 | 87064.75 | 87367.60 | 0.25% | 0.57% | 1,113 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86107.43 | 86935.14 | -0.50% | 1.91% | 2,267 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 87142.67 | 87566.59 | 87000.00 | 87367.60 | 0.26% | 0.65% | 1,900 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 87786.88 | 86107.43 | 87163.39 | -0.23% | 1.91% | 3,986 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 86277.75 | 87566.59 | 86229.49 | 87367.60 | 1.25% | 1.53% | 3,320 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87343.42 | -0.03% | 2.35% | 6,866 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 86227.31 | 87566.59 | 85850.00 | 87367.60 | 1.31% | 1.96% | 4,385 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87438.48 | 0.08% | 2.35% | 8,522 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 85910.61 | 86615.38 | 85266.00 | 86277.75 | 0.43% | 1.56% | 4,527 BTC |
| During | 86277.75 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87343.42 | 1.22% | 2.35% | 10,186 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 85910.61 | 87566.59 | 85266.00 | 87367.60 | 1.67% | 2.63% | 7,847 BTC |
| During | 87367.60 | 88175.98 | 86107.43 | 87760.47 | 0.45% | 2.35% | 10,346 BTC |
