BTC Volatility Analysis for Non-Farm Payrolls, 4th October 2019

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 4 October 2019 at 8:30 AM EDT. The economy added 194K jobs for September 2019, according to Non-Farm Payrolls, after a gain of 235K in August 2019.

It arrived at the same moment as International Trade Balance in Goods and Services, International Imports in Goods and Services, International Exports in Goods and Services, Non-Farm Private Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.79x, against 3.21x for a typical Non-Farm Payrolls release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.70x, against a typical 4.71x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $8,144.73 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.23% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.4% of its price, against 0.63% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Non-Farm Payrolls releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 3.15x across 21, against 3.22x across 49. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 11 October rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.79x compares with 3.15x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Non-Farm Payrolls

Nonfarm payrolls is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications. This is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which surveys private and government entities throughout the U.S. about their payrolls. The BLS reports the nonfarm payroll numbers to the public on a monthly basis through the closely followed “Employment Situation” report.