BTC Volatility Analysis for Non-Farm Payrolls, 2nd July 2020

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 2 July 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. The economy added 5M jobs for June 2020, according to Non-Farm Payrolls, after a gain of 3M in May 2020.

It arrived at the same moment as International Trade Balance in Goods and Services, International Imports in Goods and Services, International Exports in Goods and Services, Non-Farm Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $9,182.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.53% higher, and an hour later 0.58% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.68% of its price, against 0.26% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.91x, against 3.21x for a typical Non-Farm Payrolls release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.89x, against a typical 4.71x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Non-Farm Payrolls releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 3.15x across 21, against 3.22x across 49. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.91x compares with 3.22x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 Non-Farm Payrolls releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 3.21x.

About Non-Farm Payrolls

Nonfarm payrolls is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications. This is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which surveys private and government entities throughout the U.S. about their payrolls. The BLS reports the nonfarm payroll numbers to the public on a monthly basis through the closely followed “Employment Situation” report.