LINK Volatility Analysis for Initial Claims, 26th October 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 26 October 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 214K for the week ending 21st Oct, from 200K in the week ending 14th Oct.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Chainlink's volatility ratio was 1.46x, against 1.43x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.15x, against a typical 1.63x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Chainlink moved

Chainlink was at $11.03 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.09% higher, and an hour later 0.45% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.45% of its price, against 3.17% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Chainlink about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.45x across 93, against 1.38x across 208. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.46x compares with 1.45x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

About Initial Jobless Claims

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.