LINK Volatility Analysis for Initial Claims, 31st October 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 31 October 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 218K for the week ending 26th Oct, from 228K in the week ending 19th Oct.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Chainlink's volatility ratio was 0.79x, against 1.43x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.05x, against a typical 1.63x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Chainlink moved

Chainlink was at $12.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.08% higher, and an hour later 0.33% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.83% of its price, against 1.08% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Chainlink about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.45x across 93, against 1.38x across 208. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 7 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.79x compares with 1.45x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Initial Jobless Claims

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.