LINK Volatility Analysis for Initial Claims, 31st July 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 31 July 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K for the week ending 26th Jul, from 217K in the week ending 19th Jul.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Chainlink's volatility ratio was 1.32x, against 1.43x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.18x, against a typical 1.63x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Chainlink moved

Chainlink was at $17.97 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.72% lower, and an hour later 1.73% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2% of its price, against 1.06% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Chainlink about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.45x across 93, against 1.38x across 208. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 30 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.32x compares with 1.38x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

About Initial Jobless Claims

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.