LINK Volatility Analysis for Initial Claims, 3rd July 2025

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Chainlink's volatility ratio was 5.74x, against 1.43x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 9.09x, against a typical 1.63x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Chainlink moved

Chainlink was at $13.93 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.22% lower, and an hour later 1.15% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.51% of its price, against 1.58% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Department of Labor on 3 July 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 232K for the week ending 28th Jun, from 237K in the week ending 21st Jun.

It arrived at the same moment as International Trade Balance in Goods and Services, International Imports in Goods and Services, International Exports in Goods and Services, Non-Farm Payrolls, Non-Farm Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Chainlink about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.45x across 93, against 1.38x across 208. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.74x compares with 1.38x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 301 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Chainlink's median volatility ratio is 1.43x.

About Initial Jobless Claims

The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.