ETH Volatility Analysis for GDP Report, 29th November 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 November 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Gross Domestic Product Report came in at 5.2% for 2023 3rd Quarter, against 4.9% in 2023 3rd Quarter. The economy's output is rising faster than before.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $2,054.80 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.07% lower, and an hour later 0.12% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.6% of its price, against 0.35% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.74x, against 1.75x for a typical GDP Report release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.07x, against a typical 1.78x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, GDP Report releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.32x across 16, against 1.65x across 52. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 13 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.74x compares with 2.32x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 68 GDP Report releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.75x.

About Gross Domestic Product Report

The GDP report is one of the BEA's most crucial outputs. It tells us the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. GDP gives the public an indication of an economy's size. Moreover, when compared against prior periods, this data can reveal whether the economy is expanding (producing more goods and services) or contracting (registering declining output). The direction of GDP helps central banks determine whether it is necessary to intervene with monetary policy or not.