Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 27 January 2021 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,225.55 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.89% higher, and an hour later 3.53% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.51% of its price, against 3.14% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.68x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.64x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.68x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Below-median response to a rate hold
Ethereum stood at $1,225.55 when the Federal Open Market Committee held its target range at 0.00-0.25%. The price then rose 2.89% within fifteen minutes and 3.53% after one hour, while the high-to-low range reached 4.51% of the prior price against 3.14% in the preceding hour.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 2.68x and a volume ratio of 2.64x for the quarter hour surrounding the release. Both figures sit below the medians observed across Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, which show 4.18x volatility and 7.50x volume. The outcome therefore registers as muted against the event's own record.
Releases that changed the rate have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.50x since 2021, compared with 3.49x for those that held the rate. This instance, which held the range, posted 2.68x and therefore fell short of even the hold median. Across the full set of 46 releases the overall median volatility ratio remains 4.18x.
Traders may note that holds have coincided with smaller moves than changes, yet the scale of any single release still varies around that distinction and supplies no reliable template for the next statement.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,292.26Close
1,304.0324h Change
11.77 (0.90%)24h High
1,325.0024h Low
1,207.0024h Volume
1.993M ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
27th January, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1230.09 | 1231.12 | 1224.00 | 1225.55 | -0.37% | 0.58% | 1,731 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1235.47 | 1224.02 | 1234.41 | 0.72% | 0.93% | 2,351 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1227.69 | 1231.12 | 1224.00 | 1225.55 | -0.17% | 0.58% | 6,431 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1261.21 | 1224.02 | 1254.51 | 2.31% | 2.95% | 17,800 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1229.80 | 1231.15 | 1222.22 | 1225.55 | -0.35% | 0.73% | 14,011 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1265.00 | 1224.02 | 1255.15 | 2.36% | 3.24% | 30,121 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1229.42 | 1234.01 | 1222.17 | 1225.55 | -0.32% | 0.96% | 26,186 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1265.98 | 1224.02 | 1261.00 | 2.81% | 3.31% | 48,124 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1246.35 | 1253.27 | 1222.17 | 1225.55 | -1.70% | 2.48% | 50,648 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1274.83 | 1224.02 | 1262.59 | 2.93% | 3.99% | 66,382 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1257.26 | 1260.61 | 1222.17 | 1225.55 | -2.59% | 3.05% | 88,558 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1279.29 | 1224.02 | 1268.77 | 3.41% | 4.32% | 101,752 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1267.72 | 1285.98 | 1222.17 | 1225.55 | -3.44% | 4.96% | 196,092 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1297.00 | 1224.02 | 1287.61 | 4.82% | 5.63% | 194,068 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1224.82 | 1307.76 | 1216.52 | 1225.55 | 0.06% | 6.98% | 445,838 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1297.00 | 1224.02 | 1249.96 | 1.95% | 5.63% | 295,444 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1264.74 | 1307.76 | 1207.00 | 1225.55 | -3.20% | 7.70% | 719,928 ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1297.00 | 1217.23 | 1258.62 | 2.63% | 6.15% | 431,767 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1292.26 | 1310.73 | 1207.00 | 1224.82 | -5.51% | 7.91% | 824,096 ETH |
| During | 1224.82 | 1307.76 | 1216.52 | 1249.96 | 2.01% | 6.98% | 741,282 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1292.26 | 1310.73 | 1207.00 | 1225.55 | -5.44% | 7.91% | 1.27M ETH |
| During | 1225.55 | 1325.00 | 1217.23 | 1304.03 | 6.02% | 8.13% | 723,049 ETH |
