Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 27 January 2021 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $29,719.93 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 3.07% higher, and an hour later 3.43% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.83% of its price, against 3.49% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.16x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.50x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.16x compares with 3.31x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin's volatility ratio reached 3.16x in the quarter hour after the statement, below the 4.29x median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, while the volume ratio stood at 2.50x against a typical 5.81x. Price rose 3.07 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 3.43 percent within the hour, with an intraday range of 3.83 percent.
The limited response aligned with the pattern observed when the committee elects to hold rates steady. Across 28 such instances since 2021 the median volatility ratio has been 3.31x, compared with 5.37x on the 18 occasions when the target range was adjusted. This release’s 3.16x outcome therefore sat squarely within the range that normally accompanies unchanged policy.
Traders reviewing the record can note that releases of this type have produced contained price action more often than not. The median move one hour after any Fed Interest Rate statement has been 1 percent either side of the prior level, and the January 2021 outcome remained consistent with that baseline.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
31,669.98Close
31,564.5824h Change
-105.40 (-0.33%)24h High
31,890.1924h Low
29,241.7224h Volume
103,186 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
27th January, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 29775.24 | 29798.62 | 29700.00 | 29709.79 | -0.22% | 0.33% | 72 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 29958.78 | 29712.94 | 29893.59 | 0.58% | 0.82% | 192 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 29718.16 | 29798.62 | 29667.38 | 29709.79 | -0.03% | 0.44% | 289 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 30463.51 | 29712.94 | 30336.58 | 2.03% | 2.46% | 980 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 29770.14 | 29798.62 | 29579.96 | 29709.79 | -0.20% | 0.73% | 773 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 30473.64 | 29712.94 | 30302.25 | 1.92% | 2.50% | 1,625 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 29672.19 | 29830.30 | 29500.00 | 29709.79 | 0.13% | 1.11% | 1,585 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 30770.00 | 29712.94 | 30631.43 | 2.98% | 3.44% | 2,324 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 30088.39 | 30175.09 | 29500.00 | 29709.79 | -1.27% | 2.24% | 2,988 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 30825.00 | 29712.94 | 30595.03 | 2.86% | 3.61% | 3,577 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 30508.51 | 30537.50 | 29500.00 | 29709.79 | -2.69% | 3.40% | 4,510 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 30850.00 | 29712.94 | 30740.33 | 3.32% | 3.69% | 5,615 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 30529.56 | 30845.81 | 29500.00 | 29709.79 | -2.76% | 4.36% | 8,547 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 31556.00 | 29712.94 | 31520.20 | 5.71% | 5.84% | 11,549 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 29573.98 | 30948.00 | 29390.00 | 29709.79 | 0.46% | 5.03% | 20,435 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 31649.99 | 29712.94 | 30519.93 | 2.62% | 6.12% | 17,516 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 30759.02 | 31057.00 | 29241.72 | 29709.79 | -3.53% | 5.84% | 34,448 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 31649.99 | 29712.94 | 30671.86 | 3.10% | 6.12% | 24,846 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 31669.98 | 31890.19 | 29241.72 | 29573.15 | -7.09% | 8.30% | 37,943 BTC |
| During | 29573.98 | 31649.99 | 29390.00 | 30519.93 | 3.10% | 7.14% | 37,951 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 31669.98 | 31890.19 | 29241.72 | 29709.79 | -6.60% | 8.30% | 58,378 BTC |
| During | 29719.93 | 31876.63 | 29712.94 | 31564.58 | 5.84% | 6.79% | 44,808 BTC |
