Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 11.62x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 18.72x, against a typical 7.50x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,809.81 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 3.63% higher, and an hour later 4.19% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 5.98% of its price, against 3.17% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 15 December 2021 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 11.62x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the December 2021 Federal Reserve decision. Its volatility ratio reached 11.62x against the 4.18x median across all 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, while volume rose to 18.72x compared with a typical 7.50x. The price stood at $3,809.81 at the 2:00 PM EST release and climbed 3.63 percent within fifteen minutes and 4.19 percent within the hour, with a high-to-low range of 5.98 percent against 3.17 percent in the preceding hour.
Hold decision produced outsized movement
The FOMC left the target range unchanged at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. Across the sample, holds have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.49x, well below the 5.50x median for rate changes. This release nevertheless delivered more than three times the typical hold reaction, showing that the market response exceeded what the policy decision itself would normally generate.
The episode illustrates that even a no-change announcement can coincide with sharp price action when it arrives alongside the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Traders preparing for future meetings of this type may note that the record contains clear instances in which volatility substantially exceeded the median for holds, without implying any particular outcome for the next release.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,852.10Close
4,020.5724h Change
168.47 (4.19%)24h High
4,092.2224h Low
3,643.7324h Volume
536,371 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
15th December, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3802.00 | 3810.00 | 3800.01 | 3809.82 | 0.21% | 0.26% | 355 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 3809.82 | 3775.08 | 3793.37 | -0.43% | 0.91% | 2,516 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3787.22 | 3811.74 | 3783.79 | 3809.82 | 0.59% | 0.73% | 2,542 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 3910.00 | 3759.06 | 3883.40 | 1.89% | 3.86% | 25,849 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3823.25 | 3832.00 | 3778.08 | 3809.82 | -0.35% | 1.41% | 7,501 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 3969.00 | 3759.06 | 3962.06 | 3.84% | 5.29% | 47,559 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3812.34 | 3840.45 | 3778.08 | 3809.82 | -0.07% | 1.62% | 12,567 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 3986.80 | 3759.06 | 3948.20 | 3.51% | 5.71% | 60,250 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3757.62 | 3840.45 | 3755.00 | 3809.82 | 1.37% | 2.22% | 20,389 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 3986.80 | 3759.06 | 3895.89 | 2.21% | 5.71% | 87,357 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3728.65 | 3840.45 | 3719.51 | 3809.82 | 2.13% | 3.15% | 28,516 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 3986.80 | 3759.06 | 3969.54 | 4.02% | 5.71% | 120,281 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3714.76 | 3840.45 | 3693.28 | 3809.82 | 2.50% | 3.83% | 45,067 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 4092.22 | 3759.06 | 4055.00 | 6.05% | 8.14% | 182,991 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3778.21 | 3840.45 | 3643.73 | 3809.82 | 0.83% | 5.12% | 115,658 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 4092.22 | 3759.06 | 4000.90 | 4.78% | 8.14% | 222,092 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3810.00 | 3840.45 | 3643.73 | 3809.82 | 0.00% | 5.12% | 142,151 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 4092.22 | 3759.06 | 4042.79 | 5.76% | 8.14% | 261,906 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3852.10 | 3900.00 | 3765.00 | 3778.21 | -1.96% | 3.46% | 99,428 ETH |
| During | 3778.21 | 4092.22 | 3643.73 | 4000.90 | 5.57% | 10.96% | 337,749 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3852.10 | 3900.00 | 3643.73 | 3809.82 | -1.11% | 6.57% | 215,085 ETH |
| During | 3809.81 | 4092.22 | 3759.06 | 4020.57 | 5.24% | 8.14% | 321,286 ETH |
