Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.66x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.72x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $26,027.03 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.59% lower, and an hour later 0.43% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.32% of its price, against 0.6% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 14 June 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.00–5.25%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 7.66x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision that left the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 5.00 to 5.25 percent. Volatility reached 7.66x its normal level for the quarter hour of the 2:00 PM EDT release, well above the 4.29x median across the 46 announcements tracked since 2021. Volume expanded by 8.72x against the event typical of 5.81x.
It fell 0.59 percent in the following fifteen minutes and 0.43 percent after one hour, while the high-to-low range in that hour widened to 1.32 percent of the spot price from 0.6 percent in the preceding hour.
Hold decisions have produced a median volatility ratio of only 3.31x since 2021, compared with 5.37x when the committee altered rates. The 7.66x reading therefore exceeded what the unchanged policy setting alone would have indicated. Traders preparing for the next release that includes updated projections may treat the size of the accompanying statement and dot plot as an additional variable capable of lifting volatility even when the rate decision itself is a hold.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
25,845.14Close
25,031.4224h Change
-813.72 (-3.25%)24h High
26,098.0024h Low
24,820.5624h Volume
47,857 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
14th June, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 26021.01 | 26028.58 | 25990.00 | 26027.04 | 0.02% | 0.15% | 109 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 25928.59 | 25996.45 | -0.12% | 0.65% | 416 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 26001.80 | 26045.00 | 25990.00 | 26027.04 | 0.10% | 0.21% | 278 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 25870.96 | 25927.34 | -0.38% | 0.87% | 1,081 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 25964.46 | 26045.00 | 25964.45 | 26027.04 | 0.24% | 0.31% | 512 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 25753.38 | 25867.93 | -0.62% | 1.32% | 2,001 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 25968.09 | 26045.00 | 25955.26 | 26027.04 | 0.23% | 0.34% | 576 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 25753.38 | 25872.25 | -0.60% | 1.32% | 2,498 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 25944.03 | 26045.00 | 25924.83 | 26027.04 | 0.32% | 0.46% | 1,013 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 25753.38 | 25878.66 | -0.57% | 1.32% | 3,019 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 25965.87 | 26045.00 | 25888.00 | 26027.04 | 0.24% | 0.60% | 2,026 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 25753.38 | 25915.03 | -0.43% | 1.32% | 4,206 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 25986.74 | 26045.00 | 25888.00 | 26027.04 | 0.15% | 0.60% | 2,749 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 25753.38 | 25874.59 | -0.59% | 1.32% | 5,783 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 25990.00 | 26045.00 | 25888.00 | 26027.04 | 0.14% | 0.60% | 4,494 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 24820.56 | 25121.25 | -3.61% | 4.89% | 24,003 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 25975.71 | 26085.33 | 25888.00 | 26027.04 | 0.20% | 0.76% | 7,443 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 24820.56 | 25128.60 | -3.58% | 4.89% | 28,139 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 25845.14 | 26085.33 | 25840.00 | 25990.00 | 0.56% | 0.94% | 7,666 BTC |
| During | 25990.00 | 26098.00 | 24820.56 | 25121.25 | -3.46% | 4.89% | 28,497 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 25845.14 | 26085.33 | 25840.00 | 26027.04 | 0.70% | 0.94% | 12,160 BTC |
| During | 26027.03 | 26098.00 | 24820.56 | 25031.42 | -3.98% | 4.89% | 35,698 BTC |
