Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 17 March 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $55,542.50 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.62% higher, and an hour later 3.66% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.66% of its price, against 0.9% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.32x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.84x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.32x compares with 3.31x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded a volatility ratio of 3.32x in the quarter hour after the March 2021 Federal Reserve decision. That reading sits just above the 3.31x median observed across the 28 rate-hold announcements since 2021. Price advanced 1.62 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 3.66 percent within the hour, expanding the high-low range to 3.66 percent of the pre-release level.
The decision left the target range unchanged at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. Announcements that alter the rate have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18 instances. The measured outcome therefore matched the pattern that has accompanied unchanged settings.
Across all 46 Federal Reserve rate decisions since 2021, Bitcoin shows a median volatility ratio of 4.29x. This release fell short of the overall benchmark yet aligned with the hold-specific record, indicating that the absence of a rate change limited the response. The volume ratio of 3.84x, below the event typical of 5.81x, further illustrates the contained activity.
Traders preparing for the next decision of this type may observe that hold announcements have generated smaller moves than changes in the target range. The record supplies no basis for expecting any particular magnitude on future releases.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
55,951.37Close
58,957.4424h Change
3006.07 (5.10%)24h High
59,561.5424h Low
54,123.6924h Volume
72,334 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
17th March, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 55518.69 | 55542.51 | 55476.59 | 55542.50 | 0.04% | 0.12% | 19 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 55877.00 | 55542.50 | 55853.09 | 0.56% | 0.60% | 203 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55499.98 | 55542.51 | 55405.51 | 55542.50 | 0.08% | 0.25% | 119 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 56210.00 | 55542.50 | 56049.11 | 0.90% | 1.19% | 1,043 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55566.22 | 55571.00 | 55405.51 | 55542.50 | -0.04% | 0.30% | 257 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 56251.34 | 55542.50 | 56243.88 | 1.25% | 1.26% | 1,436 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55521.20 | 55597.51 | 55392.99 | 55542.50 | 0.04% | 0.37% | 551 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 56623.78 | 55542.50 | 56443.15 | 1.60% | 1.91% | 2,194 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 55349.45 | 55659.93 | 55244.08 | 55542.50 | 0.35% | 0.75% | 1,109 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 56940.00 | 55542.50 | 56528.19 | 1.74% | 2.45% | 3,665 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 55275.08 | 55659.93 | 55162.60 | 55542.50 | 0.48% | 0.89% | 1,783 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 57576.28 | 55542.50 | 57575.51 | 3.53% | 3.53% | 6,667 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 54930.00 | 55659.93 | 54740.00 | 55542.50 | 1.10% | 1.65% | 4,460 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 58201.58 | 55542.50 | 57867.42 | 4.02% | 4.57% | 12,628 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 55108.44 | 55659.93 | 54298.18 | 55542.50 | 0.78% | 2.45% | 10,775 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 58732.08 | 55542.50 | 58427.49 | 4.94% | 5.43% | 19,213 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 54840.01 | 55659.93 | 54123.69 | 55542.50 | 1.26% | 2.76% | 17,766 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 58974.73 | 55542.50 | 58912.97 | 5.72% | 5.82% | 24,949 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 55951.37 | 56326.53 | 54123.69 | 55105.41 | -1.54% | 3.91% | 22,543 BTC |
| During | 55108.44 | 58732.08 | 54298.18 | 58427.49 | 5.68% | 7.55% | 29,989 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 55951.37 | 56326.53 | 54123.69 | 55542.50 | -0.74% | 3.91% | 33,318 BTC |
| During | 55542.50 | 59561.54 | 55542.50 | 58957.44 | 5.79% | 6.75% | 39,016 BTC |
