Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 December 2024 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 4.25–4.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,899.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.96% lower, and an hour later 3.3% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.52% of its price, against 0.9% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.75x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.20x, against a typical 7.50x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 3.75x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum posted an ordinary reaction to the December Federal Open Market Committee decision. The price fell 0.96 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 3.3 percent within an hour, while the hourly high-low range reached 3.52 percent. Volatility rose 3.75 times and volume 5.20 times relative to the same quarter-hour earlier that day, figures that sit close to the 4.18x and 7.50x medians recorded for all Federal Reserve rate announcements since 2021.
The decision lowered the target range by 25 basis points to 4.25-4.50 percent, a move that historically produces larger swings in Ethereum than rate holds. Releases that altered policy have shown a median volatility ratio of 5.50x, yet this outcome remained below that benchmark. The gap indicates the market absorbed the change with less displacement than the event type normally generates.
Traders reviewing the full series of 46 Federal Reserve announcements since 2021 will note that the median volatility ratio stands at 4.18x. This release aligned with that central tendency rather than exceeding it, even though the policy adjustment supplied a clear catalyst. The result supplies a reminder that not every rate change produces an outsized response, information that can help calibrate expectations around the timing and magnitude of future policy shifts.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,829.38Close
3,680.0024h Change
-149.38 (-4.06%)24h High
3,907.1924h Low
3,542.2224h Volume
815,226 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
18th December, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3897.69 | 3902.51 | 3895.60 | 3899.09 | 0.04% | 0.18% | 1,256 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3887.00 | 3895.44 | -0.09% | 0.52% | 3,404 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3887.37 | 3902.51 | 3885.78 | 3899.09 | 0.30% | 0.43% | 2,581 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3876.42 | 3882.42 | -0.43% | 0.79% | 8,596 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3875.99 | 3902.51 | 3875.59 | 3899.09 | 0.59% | 0.69% | 3,471 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3844.65 | 3845.17 | -1.40% | 1.60% | 17,177 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3868.94 | 3902.51 | 3867.79 | 3899.09 | 0.77% | 0.89% | 4,155 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3837.60 | 3861.64 | -0.97% | 1.78% | 22,625 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3879.80 | 3902.51 | 3867.46 | 3899.09 | 0.49% | 0.90% | 6,460 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3835.02 | 3844.02 | -1.43% | 1.85% | 30,683 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3879.55 | 3902.51 | 3867.46 | 3899.09 | 0.50% | 0.90% | 11,177 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3770.00 | 3770.29 | -3.42% | 3.51% | 77,533 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3872.14 | 3902.51 | 3856.50 | 3899.09 | 0.69% | 1.18% | 26,313 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3650.00 | 3695.00 | -5.52% | 6.58% | 264,298 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3837.56 | 3902.51 | 3825.00 | 3899.09 | 1.58% | 1.99% | 71,397 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3650.00 | 3680.75 | -5.93% | 6.58% | 339,162 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3861.22 | 3902.51 | 3825.00 | 3899.09 | 0.97% | 1.99% | 108,355 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3617.42 | 3655.99 | -6.65% | 7.42% | 418,222 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3829.38 | 3891.09 | 3825.27 | 3837.55 | 0.21% | 1.69% | 115,937 ETH |
| During | 3837.56 | 3907.19 | 3650.00 | 3680.75 | -4.26% | 6.58% | 410,558 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3829.38 | 3902.51 | 3825.00 | 3899.09 | 1.79% | 1.99% | 187,334 ETH |
| During | 3899.09 | 3907.19 | 3542.22 | 3680.00 | -5.95% | 9.34% | 627,892 ETH |
