Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 December 2024 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 4.25–4.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $104,805.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.88% lower, and an hour later 1.9% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.9% of its price, against 0.81% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.43x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.68x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 3.43x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin posted an ordinary reaction to the December 18 Federal Reserve rate decision. The 25 basis point cut to the 4.25-4.50 percent target range coincided with a 0.88 percent decline in the first fifteen minutes and a 1.9 percent decline after one hour. The high-to-low range reached 1.9 percent of the pre-release price of $104,805.44, compared with 0.81 percent in the prior hour. Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 3.43x and a volume ratio of 4.68x, both below the event medians of 4.29x and 5.81x.
Rate Change Without Typical Impact
Fed decisions that altered the target rate have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37x since 2021, well above the 3.31x median for holds. This release changed the rate yet generated only 3.43x volatility, falling short of the pattern for similar moves. Across all 46 Fed Interest Rate releases in the sample the median stands at 4.29x, placing the December outcome squarely in line with the broader record rather than an outlier. Traders can note that even a rate decision accompanied by updated projections does not guarantee an outsized move when the scale of the change aligns with expectations already priced in.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
103,794.65Close
101,200.0124h Change
-2594.64 (-2.56%)24h High
105,350.0024h Low
98,802.0024h Volume
51,999 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
18th December, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 104860.69 | 104860.69 | 104748.00 | 104808.99 | -0.05% | 0.11% | 35 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 104383.08 | 104569.51 | -0.23% | 0.40% | 185 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104530.00 | 104920.47 | 104479.03 | 104808.99 | 0.27% | 0.42% | 230 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 104152.65 | 104240.00 | -0.54% | 0.62% | 619 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104231.54 | 104920.47 | 104201.00 | 104808.99 | 0.55% | 0.69% | 301 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 103500.03 | 103521.57 | -1.24% | 1.25% | 1,102 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104190.06 | 104920.47 | 104150.01 | 104808.99 | 0.59% | 0.73% | 369 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 103438.27 | 103880.60 | -0.89% | 1.30% | 1,497 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104681.94 | 104920.47 | 104150.01 | 104808.99 | 0.12% | 0.73% | 703 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 103329.73 | 103733.11 | -1.03% | 1.41% | 2,588 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 104656.18 | 104999.98 | 104150.01 | 104808.99 | 0.15% | 0.81% | 1,126 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 102817.82 | 102817.82 | -1.93% | 1.90% | 4,875 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 104199.63 | 104999.98 | 103876.00 | 104808.99 | 0.58% | 1.07% | 2,125 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 100303.72 | 100846.67 | -3.93% | 4.30% | 15,278 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 104019.94 | 104999.98 | 103380.43 | 104808.99 | 0.75% | 1.54% | 6,460 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 100303.72 | 101152.45 | -3.61% | 4.30% | 19,985 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 104920.02 | 105271.80 | 103380.43 | 104808.99 | -0.11% | 1.80% | 10,106 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 100000.00 | 100831.16 | -3.94% | 4.59% | 24,816 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 103794.65 | 105350.00 | 103702.32 | 104019.93 | 0.22% | 1.56% | 9,240 BTC |
| During | 104019.94 | 104999.98 | 100303.72 | 101152.45 | -2.83% | 4.47% | 26,445 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 103794.65 | 105350.00 | 103380.43 | 104808.99 | 0.97% | 1.87% | 15,700 BTC |
| During | 104805.44 | 104805.44 | 98802.00 | 101200.01 | -3.56% | 5.73% | 36,298 BTC |
