Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 31 January 2024 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,335.63 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.11% lower, and an hour later 0.52% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.4% of its price, against 0.77% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.58x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.20x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 1.58x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered a muted price reaction after the Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The asset traded at $2,335.63 at the 2:00 PM EST announcement and stood 0.11 percent lower fifteen minutes later and 0.52 percent lower after one hour. Its high-to-low range reached 1.4 percent of price in the hour after the release, up from 0.77 percent in the prior hour.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 1.58 times for Ethereum, far below the 4.18 times median observed across Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded only 1.20 times against the typical 7.50 times multiple. Rate-hold decisions have produced a 3.49 times median volatility ratio in 28 prior cases, while rate changes have produced 5.50 times across 18 cases. This release fell short of even the hold benchmark.
Across the full set of 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio stands at 4.18 times. The statement-and-press-conference format without projections coincided with restrained trading. Market participants may watch the scheduled Initial Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls prints in the days ahead for additional signals on rate-path expectations.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,331.92Close
2,274.5024h Change
-57.42 (-2.52%)24h High
2,350.3024h Low
2,240.0024h Volume
424,890 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
31st January, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2336.44 | 2336.68 | 2335.17 | 2335.63 | -0.03% | 0.06% | 195 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2335.96 | 2332.80 | 2333.50 | -0.09% | 0.14% | 424 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2335.73 | 2338.08 | 2334.89 | 2335.63 | 0.00% | 0.14% | 733 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2339.57 | 2331.00 | 2339.56 | 0.17% | 0.37% | 1,525 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2335.60 | 2338.08 | 2333.69 | 2335.63 | 0.00% | 0.19% | 3,339 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2331.00 | 2336.85 | 0.05% | 0.48% | 2,723 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2338.00 | 2339.51 | 2333.69 | 2335.63 | -0.10% | 0.25% | 4,337 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2331.00 | 2333.13 | -0.11% | 0.48% | 4,281 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2344.09 | 2344.09 | 2330.07 | 2335.63 | -0.36% | 0.60% | 9,377 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2309.51 | 2315.37 | -0.88% | 1.40% | 14,578 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2347.28 | 2348.05 | 2330.07 | 2335.63 | -0.50% | 0.77% | 18,814 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2309.51 | 2323.38 | -0.53% | 1.40% | 24,021 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2345.92 | 2350.30 | 2330.07 | 2335.63 | -0.44% | 0.86% | 36,652 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2286.11 | 2287.98 | -2.08% | 2.40% | 51,467 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2307.40 | 2350.30 | 2291.69 | 2335.63 | 1.21% | 2.49% | 91,351 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2263.57 | 2285.75 | -2.18% | 3.36% | 84,841 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2304.57 | 2350.30 | 2291.69 | 2335.63 | 1.33% | 2.49% | 123,146 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2263.57 | 2283.59 | -2.28% | 3.36% | 105,573 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2331.92 | 2343.52 | 2280.77 | 2307.40 | -1.06% | 2.68% | 132,179 ETH |
| During | 2307.40 | 2350.30 | 2263.57 | 2285.75 | -0.95% | 3.69% | 176,192 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2331.92 | 2350.30 | 2280.77 | 2335.63 | 0.16% | 2.96% | 223,531 ETH |
| During | 2335.63 | 2342.26 | 2240.00 | 2274.50 | -2.69% | 4.37% | 201,360 ETH |
