Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 31 January 2024 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.23x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.34x, against a typical 5.81x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $43,513.38 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.29% lower, and an hour later 0.41% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.17% of its price, against 0.62% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 1.23x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the January 31 Federal Reserve decision that left the target range unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The volatility ratio reached only 1.23x and the volume ratio 1.34x, both well below the medians recorded for this event since 2021. Price movement stayed contained, with Bitcoin slipping 0.29 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.41 percent after one hour from the $43,513.38 level, while the hourly range expanded only modestly to 1.17 percent.
The subdued response aligns with the broader record for rate-hold announcements. Fed decisions that left policy unchanged have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.31x across twenty-eight instances, already lower than the 5.37x median attached to actual rate changes. This release fell short even of that benchmark, indicating that the absence of a shift and the lack of fresh projections or a dot plot left little for traders to act on.
Traders monitoring the next comparable statement can note that volatility has tended to remain muted when the Committee elects to hold, regardless of surrounding calendar noise. The data show the pattern without implying that every future hold will follow the same path.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
42,975.92Close
42,192.4024h Change
-783.52 (-1.86%)24h High
43,745.1124h Low
41,884.2824h Volume
42,889 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
31st January, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 43496.36 | 43517.82 | 43488.95 | 43513.38 | 0.04% | 0.07% | 30 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43537.99 | 43425.43 | 43425.43 | -0.20% | 0.26% | 55 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43504.62 | 43517.82 | 43488.95 | 43513.38 | 0.02% | 0.07% | 88 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43537.99 | 43385.12 | 43517.84 | 0.01% | 0.35% | 232 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43528.63 | 43528.63 | 43474.13 | 43513.38 | -0.04% | 0.13% | 175 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 43385.12 | 43476.03 | -0.09% | 0.38% | 377 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43509.12 | 43550.14 | 43474.13 | 43513.38 | 0.01% | 0.17% | 353 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 43385.12 | 43388.90 | -0.29% | 0.38% | 508 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43664.80 | 43664.81 | 43474.13 | 43513.38 | -0.35% | 0.44% | 691 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 43115.52 | 43167.10 | -0.80% | 1.00% | 1,228 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 43715.04 | 43745.11 | 43474.13 | 43513.38 | -0.46% | 0.62% | 1,500 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 43041.10 | 43334.64 | -0.41% | 1.17% | 2,550 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 43474.81 | 43745.11 | 43432.01 | 43513.38 | 0.09% | 0.72% | 3,413 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 42519.92 | 42541.18 | -2.29% | 2.37% | 6,478 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42882.08 | 43745.11 | 42691.10 | 43513.38 | 1.45% | 2.41% | 8,989 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 42276.84 | 42656.07 | -2.01% | 2.93% | 10,894 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42622.80 | 43745.11 | 42521.31 | 43513.38 | 2.05% | 2.80% | 12,590 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 42220.85 | 42474.95 | -2.44% | 3.06% | 13,659 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42975.92 | 43091.10 | 42355.00 | 42882.08 | -0.22% | 1.71% | 11,823 BTC |
| During | 42882.08 | 43745.11 | 42276.84 | 42656.07 | -0.53% | 3.36% | 19,883 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42975.92 | 43745.11 | 42355.00 | 43513.38 | 1.24% | 3.18% | 20,812 BTC |
| During | 43513.38 | 43551.99 | 41884.28 | 42192.40 | -3.13% | 3.83% | 22,078 BTC |
