Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 13.93x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 11.72x, against a typical 5.81x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $18,222.21 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.59% lower, and an hour later 2.36% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.51% of its price, against 2.59% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 14 December 2022 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, to 4.25–4.50%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 13.93x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the Federal Reserve's December 2022 rate decision. Its volatility ratio reached 13.93x against the 4.29x median recorded across forty-six Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 11.72x versus the typical 5.81x. The price stood at $18,222.21 at the 2:00 PM EST announcement, then declined 1.59 percent within fifteen minutes and 2.36 percent after one hour, while the high-to-low range widened to 3.51 percent of spot compared with 2.59 percent in the preceding hour.
The move occurred alongside a 50 basis point increase that lifted the target range to 4.25-4.50 percent. Across the sample, rate-changing decisions have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37x in eighteen cases, well above the 3.31x median attached to holds. This release's 13.93x figure exceeded even that subset benchmark.
Against the full record, the outcome illustrates how certain policy adjustments can generate activity well beyond the event median. Traders monitoring future releases of this type may observe that shifts in the target range have coincided with larger price ranges than decisions that left rates unchanged, though the precise scale remains variable.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
17,784.13Close
17,718.9524h Change
-65.18 (-0.37%)24h High
18,387.9524h Low
17,561.0024h Volume
270,795 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
14th December, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 18109.49 | 18231.90 | 18094.07 | 18213.47 | 0.57% | 0.76% | 2,323 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17993.12 | 18165.26 | -0.31% | 1.94% | 3,688 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18317.74 | 18387.95 | 17915.31 | 18213.47 | -0.57% | 2.57% | 6,860 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17760.00 | 17980.41 | -1.34% | 3.22% | 13,316 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18317.17 | 18387.95 | 17915.31 | 18213.47 | -0.57% | 2.57% | 8,126 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17760.00 | 17911.30 | -1.74% | 3.22% | 18,037 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18310.62 | 18387.95 | 17915.31 | 18213.47 | -0.53% | 2.57% | 9,549 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17760.00 | 17931.85 | -1.62% | 3.22% | 21,269 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18254.54 | 18387.95 | 17915.31 | 18213.47 | -0.23% | 2.57% | 16,008 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17760.00 | 17893.97 | -1.83% | 3.22% | 27,564 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 18096.48 | 18387.95 | 17915.31 | 18213.47 | 0.64% | 2.57% | 26,837 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17709.62 | 17792.90 | -2.41% | 3.49% | 44,075 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18102.44 | 18387.95 | 17915.31 | 18213.47 | 0.61% | 2.57% | 34,580 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17660.94 | 17765.97 | -2.57% | 3.76% | 63,964 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18062.82 | 18387.95 | 17915.31 | 18213.47 | 0.83% | 2.57% | 62,270 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17660.94 | 17837.00 | -2.16% | 3.76% | 76,673 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17913.65 | 18387.95 | 17861.59 | 18213.47 | 1.65% | 2.86% | 93,949 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17660.94 | 17792.15 | -2.42% | 3.76% | 89,150 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17784.13 | 18095.00 | 17777.73 | 18062.07 | 1.54% | 1.75% | 79,240 BTC |
| During | 18062.82 | 18387.95 | 17660.94 | 17837.00 | -1.27% | 3.95% | 138,944 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 17784.13 | 18387.95 | 17777.73 | 18213.47 | 2.36% | 3.32% | 141,511 BTC |
| During | 18222.21 | 18350.00 | 17561.00 | 17718.95 | -2.84% | 4.30% | 129,284 BTC |
