Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 29 January 2025 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,127.94 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.22% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.17% of its price, against 1.46% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.08x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 9.18x, against a typical 7.50x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 4.08x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold the target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent. The volatility ratio reached 4.08x in the quarter hour after the 2:00 PM EST release, matching closely with the 4.18x median across 46 Fed Interest Rate events since 2021. Price stood at $3,127.94 at the moment of release, then fell 1.22 percent within fifteen minutes before returning to unchanged levels an hour later.
The move exceeded the 3.49x median volatility ratio seen in the 28 prior instances when the committee left rates unchanged. At the same time the high-to-low range in the hour after the release reached 3.17 percent of price, more than double the 1.46 percent range recorded in the hour before. Volume expanded to 9.18x against the 7.50x typical for this event type.
Traders reviewing the record may note that even a routine hold can produce activity above the historical median for no-change decisions when a press conference is also scheduled. The next data points on the calendar include the GDP report and initial claims on 30 January.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,147.32Close
3,186.1024h Change
38.78 (1.22%)24h High
3,215.7324h Low
3,054.0624h Volume
438,489 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
29th January, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3128.99 | 3129.44 | 3126.06 | 3127.94 | -0.03% | 0.11% | 312 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3128.12 | 3109.23 | 3112.82 | -0.49% | 0.60% | 6,297 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3121.13 | 3135.16 | 3121.13 | 3127.94 | 0.22% | 0.45% | 2,045 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3128.12 | 3078.85 | 3092.84 | -1.13% | 1.58% | 15,830 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3121.28 | 3135.16 | 3117.68 | 3127.94 | 0.21% | 0.56% | 3,499 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3128.12 | 3077.37 | 3082.99 | -1.46% | 1.62% | 22,161 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3113.00 | 3135.16 | 3112.56 | 3127.94 | 0.48% | 0.72% | 4,405 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3128.12 | 3068.96 | 3089.81 | -1.23% | 1.89% | 27,606 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3111.57 | 3135.16 | 3110.00 | 3127.94 | 0.52% | 0.80% | 6,814 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3128.12 | 3054.06 | 3058.72 | -2.26% | 2.37% | 39,164 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3111.60 | 3135.16 | 3089.64 | 3127.94 | 0.52% | 1.45% | 14,391 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3153.22 | 3054.06 | 3126.50 | -0.05% | 3.14% | 98,422 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3086.09 | 3135.16 | 3084.66 | 3127.94 | 1.34% | 1.61% | 27,131 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3182.52 | 3054.06 | 3136.56 | 0.27% | 4.04% | 153,286 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3096.62 | 3135.16 | 3072.57 | 3127.94 | 1.00% | 2.00% | 53,314 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3182.52 | 3054.06 | 3132.45 | 0.14% | 4.04% | 193,507 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3118.71 | 3135.16 | 3072.57 | 3127.94 | 0.30% | 2.00% | 91,812 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3182.52 | 3054.06 | 3124.42 | -0.11% | 4.04% | 218,547 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3147.32 | 3164.11 | 3080.57 | 3096.62 | -1.64% | 2.64% | 89,081 ETH |
| During | 3096.62 | 3182.52 | 3054.06 | 3132.45 | 1.14% | 4.04% | 246,822 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3147.32 | 3164.11 | 3072.57 | 3127.94 | -0.62% | 2.89% | 142,395 ETH |
| During | 3127.94 | 3215.73 | 3054.06 | 3186.10 | 1.83% | 5.03% | 296,094 ETH |
