Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 29 January 2025 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $102,854.14 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.78% lower, and an hour later 0.71% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.53% of its price, against 0.96% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.14x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.55x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 4.14x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed an ordinary response to the Federal Open Market Committee decision that left the target range unchanged at 4.25 to 4.50 percent. The price stood at $102,854.14 at the 2:00 PM release and fell 0.78 percent within fifteen minutes before finishing the hour 0.71 percent higher. Its post-release hourly range reached 2.53 percent of spot, more than double the 0.96 percent range recorded in the prior hour.
Comparison to historical Fed holds
The measured volatility ratio of 4.14x sat just below the 4.29x median recorded across forty-six Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Rate-hold announcements have produced a lower median volatility ratio of 3.31x, while changes have reached 5.37x. This release therefore exceeded the typical magnitude seen on holds even though no rate adjustment occurred. Volume expanded to 6.55x against the 5.81x benchmark for the event.
Traders preparing for the next statements can note that the absence of projections and the dot plot did not mute the reaction relative to other holds. The schedule shows GDP, initial claims and PCE data arriving over the following days, each of which will provide separate volatility readings.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
102,801.64Close
105,184.3724h Change
2382.73 (2.27%)24h High
105,595.8124h Low
101,400.0124h Volume
26,242 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
29th January, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 102933.71 | 102947.52 | 102844.42 | 102854.15 | -0.08% | 0.10% | 28 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 102854.14 | 102473.19 | 102569.03 | -0.28% | 0.37% | 238 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102963.56 | 103000.00 | 102844.42 | 102854.15 | -0.11% | 0.15% | 122 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 102896.92 | 101891.00 | 102176.49 | -0.66% | 0.98% | 643 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102843.40 | 103000.00 | 102805.37 | 102854.15 | 0.01% | 0.19% | 238 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 102896.92 | 101750.09 | 101906.39 | -0.93% | 1.11% | 940 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102754.76 | 103000.00 | 102748.46 | 102854.15 | 0.10% | 0.24% | 307 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 102896.92 | 101650.75 | 102048.00 | -0.79% | 1.21% | 1,188 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 102581.40 | 103000.00 | 102581.39 | 102854.15 | 0.27% | 0.41% | 545 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 102896.92 | 101400.01 | 101547.87 | -1.29% | 1.45% | 1,745 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 102406.97 | 103000.00 | 102008.00 | 102854.15 | 0.43% | 0.96% | 942 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 103999.00 | 101400.01 | 103583.99 | 0.70% | 2.50% | 4,875 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 102092.00 | 103000.00 | 101995.37 | 102854.15 | 0.74% | 0.98% | 1,754 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 104782.68 | 101400.01 | 104193.93 | 1.29% | 3.23% | 7,834 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 102029.94 | 103000.00 | 101675.62 | 102854.15 | 0.80% | 1.29% | 3,190 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 104782.68 | 101400.01 | 103492.06 | 0.62% | 3.23% | 10,063 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 102229.85 | 103000.00 | 101582.37 | 102854.15 | 0.61% | 1.38% | 5,978 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 104782.68 | 101400.01 | 104026.04 | 1.13% | 3.23% | 11,515 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 102801.64 | 103000.00 | 101582.37 | 102029.93 | -0.76% | 1.38% | 6,240 BTC |
| During | 102029.94 | 104782.68 | 101400.01 | 103492.06 | 1.41% | 3.23% | 13,254 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 102801.64 | 103000.00 | 101582.37 | 102854.15 | 0.05% | 1.38% | 9,430 BTC |
| During | 102854.14 | 105595.81 | 101400.01 | 105184.37 | 2.22% | 3.97% | 16,812 BTC |
