Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 7.90x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.59x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,857.40 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.53% higher, and an hour later 0.75% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.47% of its price, against 0.29% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 26 July 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 5.25–5.50%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 7.90x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Rate Change Drives Elevated Response
Ethereum recorded a strong reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision, posting a volatility ratio of 7.90x against the 4.18x median for all Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 7.59x, close to the 7.50x typical for the event. The outcome exceeded the 5.50x median observed across prior meetings that altered the target range.
The 25 basis point increase to the 5.25-5.50 percent band arrived alongside an immediate 0.53 percent price advance in the first fifteen minutes and a 0.75 percent gain after one hour. The high-to-low range reached 1.47 percent of spot in the hour after the release, compared with 0.29 percent in the preceding hour.
Decisions that changed the rate have produced larger moves than holds since 2021, and this release surpassed even the subset median; the absence of projections and the dot plot did not reduce the observed volatility.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,859.37Close
1,878.1924h Change
18.82 (1.00%)24h High
1,888.0024h Low
1,848.3524h Volume
271,228 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
26th July, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1856.40 | 1857.40 | 1855.21 | 1857.40 | 0.05% | 0.12% | 1,148 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1862.20 | 1856.45 | 1859.98 | 0.14% | 0.31% | 1,549 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1859.30 | 1860.20 | 1855.11 | 1857.40 | -0.10% | 0.27% | 2,145 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1862.20 | 1855.61 | 1861.63 | 0.23% | 0.35% | 3,064 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1859.64 | 1860.20 | 1855.11 | 1857.40 | -0.12% | 0.27% | 2,649 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1863.88 | 1855.61 | 1861.75 | 0.23% | 0.44% | 4,992 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1859.32 | 1860.20 | 1855.11 | 1857.40 | -0.10% | 0.27% | 3,365 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1875.00 | 1855.61 | 1867.24 | 0.53% | 1.03% | 14,289 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1858.67 | 1860.20 | 1855.11 | 1857.40 | -0.07% | 0.27% | 5,085 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1875.00 | 1855.61 | 1864.58 | 0.39% | 1.03% | 20,473 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1859.17 | 1860.58 | 1855.11 | 1857.40 | -0.10% | 0.29% | 7,814 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1883.00 | 1855.61 | 1871.39 | 0.75% | 1.45% | 44,785 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1860.71 | 1864.19 | 1855.11 | 1857.40 | -0.18% | 0.49% | 22,511 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1883.00 | 1855.61 | 1873.19 | 0.84% | 1.45% | 67,411 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1857.99 | 1864.19 | 1854.69 | 1857.40 | -0.03% | 0.51% | 52,378 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1888.00 | 1855.61 | 1871.03 | 0.73% | 1.72% | 99,512 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1851.10 | 1864.19 | 1850.20 | 1857.40 | 0.34% | 0.75% | 79,453 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1888.00 | 1855.61 | 1872.00 | 0.78% | 1.72% | 116,962 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1859.37 | 1860.99 | 1848.35 | 1858.00 | -0.07% | 0.68% | 65,713 ETH |
| During | 1857.99 | 1888.00 | 1854.69 | 1871.03 | 0.70% | 1.76% | 151,889 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1859.37 | 1864.19 | 1848.35 | 1857.40 | -0.11% | 0.85% | 118,091 ETH |
| During | 1857.40 | 1888.00 | 1855.61 | 1878.19 | 1.11% | 1.72% | 153,138 ETH |
