Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 3 May 2023 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 5.00–5.25%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,875.11 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.53% higher, and an hour later 0.53% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.48% of its price, against 1.48% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.34x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.51x, against a typical 7.50x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 4.34x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Rate Change Registers as Ordinary
Ethereum advanced 0.53 percent in the fifteen minutes after the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by 25 basis points to 5.00 to 5.25 percent. The same gain held one hour later while the high-to-low range remained unchanged from the prior hour at 1.48 percent of price.
Volatility reached 4.34 times the coin's normal quarter-hour level, just above the 4.18 times median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded 8.51 times against a typical 7.50 times multiple. Clometrix therefore classifies the reaction as ordinary for this event.
Decisions that altered the rate have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 5.50 times since 2021, yet this release fell short of that benchmark. The outcome illustrates that even a policy shift need not generate above-median movement when the surrounding conditions align with historical patterns.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,860.44Close
1,903.0224h Change
42.58 (2.24%)24h High
1,916.5224h Low
1,842.6424h Volume
481,270 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
3rd May, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1875.27 | 1875.28 | 1870.96 | 1875.12 | -0.01% | 0.23% | 525 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1894.45 | 1871.14 | 1881.53 | 0.34% | 1.23% | 8,538 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1880.45 | 1880.73 | 1868.04 | 1875.12 | -0.28% | 0.67% | 4,686 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1894.45 | 1871.14 | 1880.80 | 0.30% | 1.23% | 16,814 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1879.04 | 1882.24 | 1868.04 | 1875.12 | -0.21% | 0.75% | 7,087 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1894.45 | 1871.14 | 1880.42 | 0.28% | 1.23% | 22,481 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1885.75 | 1887.56 | 1868.04 | 1875.12 | -0.57% | 1.03% | 10,166 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1894.45 | 1871.14 | 1884.96 | 0.52% | 1.23% | 26,643 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1869.66 | 1888.35 | 1867.40 | 1875.12 | 0.29% | 1.11% | 25,666 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1894.45 | 1871.14 | 1881.60 | 0.34% | 1.23% | 35,886 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1864.99 | 1888.35 | 1860.63 | 1875.12 | 0.54% | 1.47% | 41,273 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1894.45 | 1866.79 | 1885.10 | 0.53% | 1.46% | 69,974 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1853.32 | 1888.35 | 1850.90 | 1875.12 | 1.16% | 1.98% | 58,200 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1894.45 | 1866.79 | 1868.01 | -0.38% | 1.46% | 108,182 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1856.75 | 1888.35 | 1844.34 | 1875.12 | 0.98% | 2.33% | 89,040 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1898.48 | 1858.11 | 1889.67 | 0.77% | 2.13% | 163,991 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1859.32 | 1888.35 | 1842.64 | 1875.12 | 0.84% | 2.42% | 144,046 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1916.52 | 1858.11 | 1905.12 | 1.58% | 3.05% | 213,521 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1860.44 | 1872.39 | 1842.64 | 1856.75 | -0.20% | 1.59% | 112,951 ETH |
| During | 1856.75 | 1898.48 | 1844.34 | 1889.67 | 1.74% | 2.85% | 253,031 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1860.44 | 1888.35 | 1842.64 | 1875.12 | 0.78% | 2.42% | 201,991 ETH |
| During | 1875.11 | 1916.52 | 1858.11 | 1903.02 | 1.47% | 3.05% | 279,279 ETH |
