Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 7 May 2025 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $96,307.54 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.08% lower, and an hour later 0.3% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.03% of its price, against 0.72% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.91x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.03x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.91x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold the target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent. The volatility ratio reached 3.91x in the quarter hour after the 2:00 PM EDT release, falling short of the 4.29x median recorded across 46 prior instances since 2021. Volume expanded 5.03x against a typical 5.81x.
This outcome exceeded the 3.31x median volatility seen in the 28 prior holds, even though rate changes have produced stronger moves with a 5.37x median. Bitcoin traded at $96,307.54 at the moment of release, declining 0.08 percent within fifteen minutes before rising 0.3 percent by the one-hour mark. The hourly range widened to 1.03 percent from 0.72 percent beforehand.
The subdued response fits the established record that unchanged rate decisions coincide with lower volatility than those that alter policy. A trader reviewing upcoming statements without projections or dot plots may observe similar restraint unless the decision itself surprises.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
96,380.96Close
98,740.6124h Change
2359.65 (2.39%)24h High
99,419.0024h Low
95,784.6124h Volume
19,863 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
7th May, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 96259.99 | 96307.55 | 96257.40 | 96307.54 | 0.05% | 0.05% | 20 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 96589.42 | 96154.93 | 96403.13 | 0.10% | 0.45% | 216 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 96368.96 | 96368.96 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.06% | 0.19% | 91 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 96674.61 | 96154.93 | 96614.05 | 0.32% | 0.54% | 339 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 96674.64 | 96724.03 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.38% | 0.55% | 229 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 96674.61 | 95944.44 | 95969.10 | -0.35% | 0.76% | 549 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 96572.95 | 96724.03 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.28% | 0.55% | 257 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 96674.61 | 95893.14 | 96229.23 | -0.08% | 0.81% | 697 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 96635.40 | 96724.03 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.34% | 0.55% | 363 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 96674.61 | 95893.14 | 96443.65 | 0.14% | 0.81% | 857 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 96857.15 | 96887.48 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.57% | 0.72% | 514 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 96880.43 | 95893.14 | 96593.59 | 0.30% | 1.02% | 1,493 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 96923.91 | 96961.04 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.64% | 0.79% | 1,134 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 96880.43 | 95784.61 | 96180.01 | -0.13% | 1.13% | 2,472 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 97022.02 | 97478.27 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.74% | 1.32% | 2,565 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 97322.00 | 95784.61 | 97120.63 | 0.84% | 1.58% | 3,322 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 97047.43 | 97478.27 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.77% | 1.32% | 3,926 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 97390.00 | 95784.61 | 97030.50 | 0.75% | 1.65% | 4,069 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 96380.96 | 97316.03 | 96361.75 | 97022.01 | 0.66% | 0.98% | 3,895 BTC |
| During | 97022.02 | 97478.27 | 95784.61 | 97120.63 | 0.10% | 1.74% | 5,887 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 96380.96 | 97478.27 | 96190.47 | 96307.54 | -0.08% | 1.32% | 6,459 BTC |
| During | 96307.54 | 99419.00 | 95784.61 | 98740.61 | 2.46% | 3.66% | 13,404 BTC |
