Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 30 July 2025 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,805.15 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.14% lower, and an hour later 1.75% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.23% of its price, against 0.61% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.83x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.81x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.83x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered a muted reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold the federal funds rate target range at 4.25 to 4.50%. Volume expanded by a more modest 2.81x against the event's typical 7.50x. Price action reflected the restraint: Ethereum stood at $3,805.15 at release, slipped 0.14% within fifteen minutes and 1.75% within an hour, while the hourly high-low range widened only to 2.23% from 0.61% beforehand.
This outcome fits the established pattern for rate holds. Since 2021, decisions that left the target unchanged have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.49x across 28 instances, compared with 5.50x across the 18 changes. The current reading of 2.83x therefore sits below the hold median itself. The release arrived without fresh projections or a dot plot, limiting the scope for immediate repricing. Traders reviewing the record may note that holds have consistently generated lower volatility than changes. The gap between the two medians supplies a useful reference when weighing the market's response to the next similar announcement that also leaves policy unchanged.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,810.24Close
3,859.1524h Change
48.91 (1.27%)24h High
3,871.1524h Low
3,677.6524h Volume
565,393 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
30th July, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3809.05 | 3809.51 | 3804.79 | 3805.14 | -0.10% | 0.12% | 207 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3804.68 | 3815.46 | 0.27% | 0.45% | 1,598 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3807.58 | 3813.22 | 3804.79 | 3805.14 | -0.06% | 0.22% | 810 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3779.87 | 3799.17 | -0.16% | 1.10% | 7,034 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3801.91 | 3813.22 | 3801.91 | 3805.14 | 0.08% | 0.30% | 1,506 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3779.87 | 3810.25 | 0.13% | 1.10% | 10,067 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3812.21 | 3813.22 | 3798.69 | 3805.14 | -0.19% | 0.38% | 2,593 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3779.87 | 3799.84 | -0.14% | 1.10% | 12,291 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3803.63 | 3815.00 | 3798.69 | 3805.14 | 0.04% | 0.43% | 5,310 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3779.87 | 3807.56 | 0.06% | 1.10% | 18,107 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3795.92 | 3815.00 | 3791.91 | 3805.14 | 0.24% | 0.61% | 10,922 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3737.00 | 3738.37 | -1.79% | 2.22% | 60,239 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3797.25 | 3817.00 | 3780.88 | 3805.14 | 0.21% | 0.95% | 29,324 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3677.65 | 3760.68 | -1.18% | 3.78% | 146,057 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3766.67 | 3832.00 | 3764.05 | 3805.14 | 1.01% | 1.77% | 76,301 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3677.65 | 3763.10 | -1.12% | 3.78% | 179,930 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3758.18 | 3832.00 | 3749.74 | 3805.14 | 1.23% | 2.15% | 119,784 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3822.00 | 3677.65 | 3810.00 | 0.13% | 3.78% | 213,831 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3810.24 | 3834.03 | 3744.16 | 3766.68 | -1.16% | 2.34% | 147,442 ETH |
| During | 3766.67 | 3832.00 | 3677.65 | 3763.10 | -0.09% | 4.03% | 256,231 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3810.24 | 3834.03 | 3744.16 | 3805.14 | -0.13% | 2.34% | 223,742 ETH |
| During | 3805.15 | 3871.15 | 3677.65 | 3859.15 | 1.40% | 5.00% | 341,651 ETH |
