Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 30 July 2025 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $117,802.11 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.12% lower, and an hour later 1.09% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.3% of its price, against 0.25% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.30x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.99x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.30x compares with 3.31x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
The 3.30x volatility ratio fell in line with the 3.31x median recorded across prior holds since 2021 and remained below the 4.29x median for all 46 Fed Interest Rate releases in the same span. Volume expanded 2.99x, also below the 5.81x benchmark for the event type.
The price path reflected that measured outcome. Bitcoin opened the release window at $117,802.11, slipped 0.12 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.09 percent within the hour, while its high-low range widened to 1.3 percent from 0.25 percent beforehand. Those moves matched the subdued profile that has accompanied unchanged policy announcements rather than the 5.37x median volatility attached to rate changes.
The record shows that unchanged announcements have produced smaller volatility and volume spikes than those that altered the target range, without implying any single future outcome.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
117,992.26Close
118,362.0024h Change
369.74 (0.31%)24h High
118,792.0024h Low
115,796.2324h Volume
16,769 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
30th July, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 117802.11 | 117802.11 | 117802.10 | 117802.10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 117784.36 | 117913.19 | 0.09% | 0.21% | 48 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 117705.01 | 117835.01 | 117705.00 | 117802.10 | 0.08% | 0.11% | 137 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 117403.88 | 117660.00 | -0.12% | 0.54% | 176 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 117661.25 | 117835.01 | 117650.00 | 117802.10 | 0.12% | 0.16% | 158 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 117403.88 | 117886.23 | 0.07% | 0.54% | 239 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 117807.24 | 117835.01 | 117650.00 | 117802.10 | 0.00% | 0.16% | 187 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 117403.88 | 117661.25 | -0.12% | 0.54% | 344 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 117803.81 | 117862.85 | 117650.00 | 117802.10 | 0.00% | 0.18% | 333 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 117403.88 | 117739.14 | -0.05% | 0.54% | 590 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 117734.80 | 117940.00 | 117650.00 | 117802.10 | 0.06% | 0.25% | 591 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 116509.47 | 116523.14 | -1.10% | 1.29% | 1,847 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 118000.01 | 118021.88 | 117635.30 | 117802.10 | -0.17% | 0.33% | 1,302 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 115796.23 | 116916.73 | -0.76% | 1.90% | 4,419 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 117675.78 | 118792.00 | 117610.93 | 117802.10 | 0.11% | 0.99% | 3,519 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 115796.23 | 117326.82 | -0.41% | 1.90% | 5,150 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 117579.99 | 118792.00 | 117358.84 | 117802.10 | 0.19% | 1.21% | 5,097 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118037.18 | 115796.23 | 117840.30 | 0.03% | 1.90% | 5,803 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 117992.26 | 118481.81 | 117358.84 | 117675.79 | -0.27% | 0.95% | 4,502 BTC |
| During | 117675.78 | 118792.00 | 115796.23 | 117326.82 | -0.30% | 2.52% | 8,669 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 117992.26 | 118792.00 | 117358.84 | 117802.10 | -0.16% | 1.21% | 8,021 BTC |
| During | 117802.11 | 118600.00 | 115796.23 | 118362.00 | 0.47% | 2.36% | 8,748 BTC |
