Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 June 2025 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $104,332.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.68% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.07% of its price, against 0.86% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.08x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.89x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.08x compares with 3.31x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Ordinary Reaction to a Steady Rate
Bitcoin showed little immediate movement after the Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent. The price stood at $104,332 at the 2:00 PM release, remained unchanged fifteen minutes later, and sat 0.68 percent lower after an hour. The hour's high to low range reached 1.07 percent, compared with 0.86 percent beforehand.
This outcome aligned with the event's typical behavior when rates stay unchanged. Releases that hold the rate have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.31 times since 2021, while changes have reached 5.37 times. The measured 3.08 times volatility ratio here fell close to that hold median and well below the overall 4.29 times median across forty six releases.
Volume followed a similar pattern, rising to 3.89 times the normal level against a typical 5.81 times for the event. Both metrics indicate that the decision matched market expectations without generating unusual trading activity. Traders can note that holds tend to produce smaller moves than changes, though each release still carries its own context from accompanying projections.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
105,423.51Close
104,892.8624h Change
-530.65 (-0.51%)24h High
105,527.8824h Low
103,500.0024h Volume
13,941 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
18th June, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 104331.87 | 104344.05 | 104307.12 | 104331.83 | 0.00% | 0.04% | 18 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 104706.08 | 104324.85 | 104580.00 | 0.24% | 0.36% | 89 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104375.70 | 104508.00 | 104254.46 | 104331.83 | -0.04% | 0.24% | 94 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 104706.08 | 104056.00 | 104057.00 | -0.26% | 0.62% | 201 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104170.43 | 104508.00 | 104148.86 | 104331.83 | 0.15% | 0.34% | 132 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 104706.08 | 104011.42 | 104157.63 | -0.17% | 0.66% | 271 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104191.07 | 104508.00 | 104140.41 | 104331.83 | 0.13% | 0.35% | 189 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 104706.08 | 103955.24 | 104347.51 | 0.01% | 0.72% | 450 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 104088.88 | 104508.00 | 103615.33 | 104331.83 | 0.23% | 0.85% | 625 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 104706.08 | 103955.24 | 104232.00 | -0.10% | 0.72% | 569 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 104426.93 | 104508.00 | 103615.33 | 104331.83 | -0.09% | 0.85% | 918 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 104706.08 | 103586.00 | 103623.39 | -0.68% | 1.07% | 1,024 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 104801.01 | 104836.64 | 103615.33 | 104331.83 | -0.45% | 1.16% | 1,428 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 104706.08 | 103500.00 | 103808.41 | -0.50% | 1.15% | 1,863 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 104439.82 | 105325.83 | 103615.33 | 104331.83 | -0.10% | 1.62% | 3,715 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 105139.87 | 103500.00 | 105085.50 | 0.72% | 1.56% | 3,066 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 104840.58 | 105325.83 | 103615.33 | 104331.83 | -0.49% | 1.62% | 5,452 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 105139.87 | 103500.00 | 104886.78 | 0.53% | 1.56% | 3,511 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 105423.51 | 105527.88 | 103814.04 | 104439.81 | -0.94% | 1.62% | 4,661 BTC |
| During | 104439.82 | 105325.83 | 103500.00 | 105085.50 | 0.61% | 1.73% | 6,782 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 105423.51 | 105527.88 | 103615.33 | 104331.83 | -1.05% | 1.81% | 8,376 BTC |
| During | 104332.00 | 105226.17 | 103500.00 | 104892.86 | 0.53% | 1.64% | 5,565 BTC |
