Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 12.72x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.87x, against a typical 5.81x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $19,867.91 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 5.03% lower, and an hour later 1.17% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 6.49% of its price, against 3.38% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 21 September 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to 3.00–3.25%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 12.72x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded an exceptional reaction to the September 2022 Federal Open Market Committee decision. Volatility reached 12.72x in the quarter hour of the release, more than double the 4.29x median across 46 Fed Interest Rate announcements since 2021. Volume stayed in line with the typical 5.81x multiple, showing that the price excursion occurred without an unusual surge in turnover.
The decision raised the target range by 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25 percent. Rate changes have historically produced larger Bitcoin moves than holds, with a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18 such releases since 2021.
Bitcoin stood at $19,867.91 at the moment of release. It fell 5.03 percent within fifteen minutes and remained 1.17 percent lower after one hour, while the high-to-low range expanded to 6.49 percent of price from 3.38 percent in the prior hour as traders monitoring future rate decisions can note that surprises coinciding with projections have repeatedly produced outsized volatility ratios relative to the event median, without implying any directional forecast.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
18,923.10Close
18,669.2124h Change
-253.89 (-1.36%)24h High
19,956.0024h Low
18,125.9824h Volume
421,065 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
21st September, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 19452.69 | 19897.00 | 19447.51 | 19867.93 | 2.09% | 2.26% | 1,351 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18688.00 | 18773.04 | -5.83% | 6.35% | 3,684 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19468.28 | 19897.00 | 19442.34 | 19867.93 | 2.01% | 2.29% | 3,110 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18666.00 | 18934.47 | -4.93% | 6.46% | 11,062 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19537.54 | 19897.00 | 19435.00 | 19867.93 | 1.66% | 2.32% | 4,778 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18666.00 | 19012.91 | -4.50% | 6.46% | 17,075 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19494.80 | 19897.00 | 19435.00 | 19867.93 | 1.88% | 2.32% | 7,027 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18666.00 | 18869.25 | -5.29% | 6.46% | 21,328 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19296.71 | 19897.00 | 19295.28 | 19867.93 | 2.88% | 3.02% | 14,589 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18666.00 | 19060.46 | -4.24% | 6.46% | 30,665 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 19235.21 | 19897.00 | 19224.73 | 19867.93 | 3.18% | 3.38% | 21,153 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18666.00 | 19636.01 | -1.18% | 6.46% | 62,288 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19191.81 | 19897.00 | 19169.37 | 19867.93 | 3.40% | 3.66% | 33,503 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18666.00 | 19001.03 | -4.56% | 6.46% | 96,158 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19272.74 | 19897.00 | 19084.17 | 19867.93 | 3.00% | 4.09% | 70,223 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18325.00 | 18466.87 | -7.59% | 8.17% | 134,246 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19165.18 | 19897.00 | 19084.17 | 19867.93 | 3.54% | 4.09% | 101,783 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18125.98 | 18461.36 | -7.62% | 9.17% | 167,847 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18923.10 | 19339.41 | 18791.20 | 19271.55 | 1.81% | 2.83% | 100,239 BTC |
| During | 19272.74 | 19956.00 | 18325.00 | 18466.87 | -4.36% | 8.17% | 204,468 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18923.10 | 19897.00 | 18791.20 | 19867.93 | 4.76% | 5.56% | 170,462 BTC |
| During | 19867.91 | 19956.00 | 18125.98 | 18669.21 | -6.42% | 9.17% | 250,603 BTC |
