Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 20 March 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,299.19 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.32% higher, and an hour later 2.98% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.35% of its price, against 3.46% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.95x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.75x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 1.95x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent produced a muted reaction in Ethereum. Volatility reached just 1.95 times normal levels in the quarter hour around the release, compared with the 4.18 times median across 46 Fed Interest Rate events since 2021. Volume rose only 1.75 times against a typical 7.50 times multiple.
This outcome fits the established record that rate holds move prices less than changes. Holds since 2021 carried a median volatility ratio of 3.49 times, while changes reached 5.50 times. The 1.95 times reading here fell below even that hold benchmark, showing a restrained response relative to the circumstances.
Traders reviewing the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting can observe that the absence of a rate adjustment tends to coincide with smaller immediate volatility in Ethereum, even when the Summary of Economic Projections arrives at the same time. The data show the pattern without indicating what any future release will produce.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,109.95Close
3,510.0824h Change
400.13 (11.40%)24h High
3,558.9924h Low
3,108.2324h Volume
1.05M ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
20th March, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3300.98 | 3307.52 | 3297.37 | 3299.19 | -0.05% | 0.31% | 1,090 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3324.60 | 3299.19 | 3318.09 | 0.57% | 0.76% | 1,954 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3285.43 | 3307.52 | 3284.16 | 3299.19 | 0.42% | 0.71% | 3,331 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3326.17 | 3299.19 | 3322.57 | 0.70% | 0.81% | 5,487 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3283.37 | 3307.52 | 3275.66 | 3299.19 | 0.48% | 0.96% | 5,746 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3342.90 | 3299.19 | 3335.00 | 1.07% | 1.31% | 12,085 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3301.60 | 3307.52 | 3275.66 | 3299.19 | -0.07% | 0.96% | 11,825 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3349.24 | 3299.19 | 3342.90 | 1.31% | 1.49% | 15,994 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3306.62 | 3326.59 | 3275.66 | 3299.19 | -0.23% | 1.53% | 21,729 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3349.24 | 3299.19 | 3323.46 | 0.73% | 1.49% | 26,508 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3241.21 | 3340.69 | 3226.53 | 3299.19 | 1.76% | 3.42% | 67,147 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3405.78 | 3295.42 | 3397.60 | 2.90% | 3.24% | 55,117 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3292.54 | 3340.69 | 3140.71 | 3299.19 | 0.20% | 5.99% | 173,743 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3405.78 | 3295.42 | 3379.01 | 2.36% | 3.24% | 90,164 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3346.09 | 3397.00 | 3140.71 | 3299.19 | -1.42% | 7.54% | 298,027 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3518.75 | 3295.42 | 3498.53 | 5.70% | 6.35% | 189,459 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3293.26 | 3397.00 | 3140.71 | 3299.19 | 0.18% | 7.54% | 399,811 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3535.24 | 3295.42 | 3516.53 | 6.18% | 6.78% | 252,029 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3109.95 | 3372.40 | 3108.23 | 3346.09 | 7.06% | 7.83% | 344,097 ETH |
| During | 3346.09 | 3518.75 | 3140.71 | 3498.53 | 4.36% | 10.74% | 487,486 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3109.95 | 3397.00 | 3108.23 | 3299.19 | 5.74% | 8.50% | 642,124 ETH |
| During | 3299.19 | 3558.99 | 3295.42 | 3510.08 | 6.01% | 7.41% | 407,586 ETH |
