Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 20 March 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $64,107.58 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.05% higher, and an hour later 2.04% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.37% of its price, against 3.02% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.66x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.69x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 1.66x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a muted reaction to the March 20 Federal Reserve decision that left the target range unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The price stood at $64,107.58 at the 2:00 PM release and rose 1.05 percent within fifteen minutes and 2.04 percent within one hour. Its high-to-low range in that first hour measured 2.37 percent of the pre-release price, narrower than the 3.02 percent range recorded in the hour before.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 1.66x and a volume ratio of 1.69x for the quarter hour containing the statement. The outcome also fell short of the 3.31x median volatility ratio that has accompanied the 28 decisions since 2021 in which the committee elected to hold rates steady.
That shortfall is the notable feature of the release. Decisions that altered the policy rate have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 5.37x, yet even the lower benchmark attached to holds was not reached. The single-release outcome therefore supplies a concrete illustration that a hold can still generate below-average movement when market positioning and surrounding conditions limit the surprise element.
Traders reviewing the next rate decision may note that the March reaction aligned with the lower end of the historical distribution for holds rather than with the broader event median. The record shows coincidence between rate holds and subdued volatility ratios without establishing any forward baseline.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
61,549.54Close
67,009.5124h Change
5459.97 (8.15%)24h High
68,240.4724h Low
61,520.6424h Volume
80,363 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
20th March, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 64219.99 | 64272.14 | 64101.10 | 64107.58 | -0.18% | 0.27% | 55 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 64590.00 | 64107.58 | 64453.58 | 0.54% | 0.75% | 175 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 64020.20 | 64272.14 | 63982.71 | 64107.58 | 0.14% | 0.45% | 172 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 64599.54 | 64107.58 | 64521.73 | 0.64% | 0.76% | 590 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 63961.10 | 64272.14 | 63857.52 | 64107.58 | 0.23% | 0.65% | 329 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 64777.00 | 64107.58 | 64560.60 | 0.70% | 1.03% | 1,033 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 64130.00 | 64272.14 | 63857.52 | 64107.58 | -0.03% | 0.65% | 630 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 64800.00 | 64107.58 | 64779.88 | 1.04% | 1.07% | 1,292 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 64086.21 | 64463.98 | 63857.52 | 64107.58 | 0.03% | 0.94% | 1,403 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 64800.00 | 63983.40 | 64403.89 | 0.46% | 1.26% | 2,106 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 63103.63 | 64776.72 | 62841.11 | 64107.58 | 1.57% | 2.99% | 5,446 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 65470.00 | 63952.39 | 65414.93 | 2.00% | 2.32% | 4,302 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63600.37 | 64776.72 | 62022.00 | 64107.58 | 0.79% | 4.25% | 11,216 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 66000.00 | 63952.39 | 65784.46 | 2.55% | 3.10% | 8,345 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63608.83 | 64776.72 | 62022.00 | 64107.58 | 0.78% | 4.25% | 18,747 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 67899.99 | 63952.39 | 67676.15 | 5.27% | 5.81% | 17,774 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63392.95 | 64776.72 | 62022.00 | 64107.58 | 1.11% | 4.25% | 25,793 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 68100.00 | 63952.39 | 67840.51 | 5.50% | 6.09% | 22,860 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61549.54 | 64353.57 | 61520.64 | 63608.83 | 3.24% | 4.40% | 24,695 BTC |
| During | 63608.83 | 67899.99 | 62022.00 | 67676.15 | 6.01% | 8.66% | 36,521 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61549.54 | 64776.72 | 61520.64 | 64107.58 | 3.99% | 5.03% | 43,441 BTC |
| During | 64107.58 | 68240.47 | 63952.39 | 67009.51 | 4.33% | 6.28% | 36,921 BTC |
