Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 January 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,015.51 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.18% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.91% of its price, against 0.8% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.69x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.85x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.69x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered a muted reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision that held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75%. The price opened the release window at $3,015.51, slipped 0.18% in the first fifteen minutes, and finished the hour unchanged. Its high-to-low range reached 0.91% of the prevailing price, only modestly wider than the 0.8% range recorded in the prior hour.
Clometrix measured Ethereum volatility at 2.69x normal levels in the quarter hour after the announcement, well below the 4.18x median observed across all 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded 4.85x against a typical 7.50x. The same data set shows that rate-hold decisions have historically produced a 3.49x median volatility ratio, while rate-change decisions reached 5.50x. This release therefore fell short even of the subdued benchmark associated with unchanged policy.
Traders reviewing the record may note that releases matching this profile, statement and press conference only with no rate change, have coincided with below-median volatility for Ethereum. That pattern supplies context for sizing positions ahead of the next comparable meeting rather than any forecast of magnitude.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,014.47Close
2,955.9724h Change
-58.50 (-1.98%)24h High
3,045.7824h Low
2,937.5524h Volume
320,366 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
28th January, 2026, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3015.49 | 3016.00 | 3013.85 | 3015.51 | 0.00% | 0.07% | 211 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3022.97 | 3012.32 | 3020.42 | 0.16% | 0.35% | 1,438 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3010.77 | 3016.00 | 3008.98 | 3015.51 | 0.16% | 0.23% | 690 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3024.14 | 2997.29 | 3019.35 | 0.13% | 0.89% | 7,084 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3010.46 | 3016.00 | 3005.35 | 3015.51 | 0.17% | 0.35% | 1,692 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3024.14 | 2997.29 | 3009.92 | -0.19% | 0.89% | 10,487 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3010.53 | 3016.00 | 3005.35 | 3015.51 | 0.17% | 0.35% | 2,363 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3024.14 | 2997.29 | 3010.02 | -0.18% | 0.89% | 11,899 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3015.49 | 3017.98 | 3005.35 | 3015.51 | 0.00% | 0.42% | 5,110 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3024.14 | 2997.29 | 3011.72 | -0.13% | 0.89% | 14,906 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3014.89 | 3024.28 | 3000.11 | 3015.51 | 0.02% | 0.80% | 16,086 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3024.19 | 2996.85 | 3016.60 | 0.04% | 0.90% | 25,074 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2999.72 | 3031.68 | 2989.41 | 3015.51 | 0.52% | 1.39% | 31,090 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3038.45 | 2996.85 | 3012.21 | -0.11% | 1.37% | 38,505 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3013.09 | 3031.68 | 2983.67 | 3015.51 | 0.08% | 1.58% | 71,221 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3038.45 | 2996.66 | 3018.92 | 0.11% | 1.38% | 53,251 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3031.14 | 3045.78 | 2983.67 | 3015.51 | -0.52% | 2.04% | 105,534 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3038.45 | 2995.94 | 3009.49 | -0.20% | 1.40% | 65,343 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3014.47 | 3045.78 | 2986.59 | 3013.09 | -0.05% | 1.94% | 112,742 ETH |
| During | 3013.09 | 3038.45 | 2983.67 | 3018.92 | 0.19% | 1.80% | 124,472 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3014.47 | 3045.78 | 2983.67 | 3015.51 | 0.03% | 2.04% | 183,963 ETH |
| During | 3015.51 | 3038.45 | 2937.55 | 2955.97 | -2.01% | 3.32% | 136,402 ETH |
