Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 January 2026 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $89,544.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.2% lower, and an hour later 0.16% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.8% of its price, against 0.97% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.10x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.70x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.10x compares with 3.31x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee holding its target range at 3.50 to 3.75%. The price sat at $89,544.00 at the 2:00 PM EST release, then fell 0.2% in the first fifteen minutes and 0.16% after one hour. Its high-to-low range over that hour measured 0.8% of price, narrower than the 0.97% recorded in the prior hour.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 3.10x for the quarter hour of the release, below the 4.29x median across 46 prior Fed Interest Rate events since 2021. Volume rose 3.70x against a typical 5.81x. The outcome matched the separate median of 3.31x observed for the 28 rate-hold decisions in that history, well short of the 5.37x median attached to the 18 decisions that altered the target.
This release therefore behaved as the surrounding circumstances implied. A trader reviewing the record sees that unchanged policy announcements have produced contained volatility ratios for Bitcoin, and the measured result here stayed in line with that pattern.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
89,317.47Close
88,319.3524h Change
-998.12 (-1.13%)24h High
90,600.0024h Low
87,704.0024h Volume
16,131 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
28th January, 2026, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 89562.16 | 89572.17 | 89516.92 | 89546.24 | -0.02% | 0.06% | 8 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89680.00 | 89468.52 | 89623.02 | 0.09% | 0.24% | 36 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 89486.33 | 89572.17 | 89417.34 | 89546.24 | 0.07% | 0.17% | 38 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89719.58 | 89073.20 | 89550.01 | 0.01% | 0.72% | 272 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 89579.59 | 89598.12 | 89312.88 | 89546.24 | -0.04% | 0.32% | 112 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89719.58 | 89073.20 | 89381.21 | -0.18% | 0.72% | 368 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 89640.00 | 89665.88 | 89312.88 | 89546.24 | -0.10% | 0.39% | 165 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89719.58 | 89073.20 | 89361.26 | -0.20% | 0.72% | 448 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 89770.32 | 89817.80 | 89312.88 | 89546.24 | -0.25% | 0.56% | 241 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89719.58 | 89073.20 | 89403.69 | -0.16% | 0.72% | 538 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 90169.89 | 90178.91 | 89312.88 | 89546.24 | -0.70% | 0.96% | 749 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89719.58 | 89006.36 | 89402.58 | -0.16% | 0.79% | 893 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 89629.66 | 90600.00 | 89277.21 | 89546.24 | -0.09% | 1.46% | 1,672 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89896.00 | 89006.36 | 89130.63 | -0.46% | 0.99% | 1,484 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 89617.27 | 90600.00 | 88904.61 | 89546.24 | -0.08% | 1.87% | 3,416 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89896.00 | 88878.01 | 89396.15 | -0.17% | 1.13% | 2,022 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 89998.69 | 90600.00 | 88904.61 | 89546.24 | -0.51% | 1.87% | 5,899 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89896.00 | 88878.01 | 89143.91 | -0.45% | 1.13% | 2,686 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 89317.47 | 90488.00 | 88833.65 | 89617.27 | 0.33% | 1.83% | 6,587 BTC |
| During | 89617.27 | 90600.00 | 88878.01 | 89396.15 | -0.25% | 1.90% | 5,438 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 89317.47 | 90600.00 | 88833.65 | 89546.24 | 0.26% | 1.95% | 10,003 BTC |
| During | 89544.00 | 89896.00 | 87704.00 | 88319.35 | -1.39% | 2.44% | 6,128 BTC |
