Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 13.76x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.23x, against a typical 5.81x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $20,438.28 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.02% higher, and an hour later 0.09% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.22% of its price, against 0.87% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 2 November 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to 3.75–4.00%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 13.76x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded an exceptional reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision on 2 November 2022. The volatility ratio reached 13.76x against the 4.29x median across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 8.23x, above the 5.81x typical level for the event. The release coincided with a 75 basis point hike that set the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
Price action showed Bitcoin at $20,438.28 at the 2:00 PM EDT statement. It rose 1.02 percent in the first fifteen minutes and stood 0.09 percent higher after one hour, while the high-to-low range reached 3.22 percent of price in that hour compared with 0.87 percent beforehand. This outcome exceeded the 5.37x median volatility ratio seen across the eighteen prior rate-changing decisions since 2021.
Rate-changing decisions have produced stronger median moves than holds, yet this instance surpassed even that subgroup benchmark. Traders reviewing future statements that alter the target range may therefore weigh the possibility of volatility ratios well above the event median when the policy adjustment arrives alongside the statement alone.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
20,487.39Close
20,377.4924h Change
-109.90 (-0.54%)24h High
20,800.0024h Low
20,048.0424h Volume
382,794 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
2nd November, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 20426.00 | 20455.00 | 20393.97 | 20436.67 | 0.05% | 0.30% | 746 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20540.00 | 20141.00 | 20515.78 | 0.38% | 1.94% | 3,850 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 20416.73 | 20459.99 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | 0.10% | 0.51% | 3,359 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20741.44 | 20141.00 | 20626.74 | 0.91% | 2.89% | 11,688 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 20468.35 | 20478.76 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | -0.16% | 0.60% | 4,723 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20761.00 | 20141.00 | 20634.48 | 0.95% | 2.99% | 18,124 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 20489.29 | 20500.81 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | -0.26% | 0.71% | 5,794 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20761.00 | 20141.00 | 20647.43 | 1.01% | 2.99% | 22,641 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 20512.18 | 20515.00 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | -0.37% | 0.78% | 9,916 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20768.49 | 20141.00 | 20737.39 | 1.44% | 3.02% | 34,130 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 20522.50 | 20532.48 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | -0.42% | 0.86% | 16,638 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20800.00 | 20141.00 | 20456.26 | 0.09% | 3.17% | 74,151 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 20409.03 | 20548.31 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | 0.14% | 0.94% | 30,193 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20800.00 | 20048.04 | 20250.68 | -0.93% | 3.62% | 122,174 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 20398.99 | 20548.31 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | 0.18% | 0.94% | 51,634 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20800.00 | 20048.04 | 20152.03 | -1.42% | 3.62% | 154,571 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 20432.38 | 20548.31 | 20355.37 | 20436.67 | 0.02% | 0.94% | 79,282 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20800.00 | 20048.04 | 20151.84 | -1.42% | 3.62% | 175,063 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 20487.39 | 20539.90 | 20339.99 | 20398.99 | -0.43% | 0.97% | 92,831 BTC |
| During | 20398.99 | 20800.00 | 20048.04 | 20152.03 | -1.23% | 3.62% | 206,205 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 20487.39 | 20548.31 | 20339.99 | 20436.67 | -0.25% | 1.01% | 144,466 BTC |
| During | 20438.28 | 20800.00 | 20048.04 | 20377.49 | -0.30% | 3.62% | 238,329 BTC |
