Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 29 October 2025 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75–4.00%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $4,013.70 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.76% lower, and an hour later 2.39% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.44% of its price, against 1.4% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.76x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.50x, against a typical 7.50x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 2.76x compares with 5.50x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Muted Reaction to a Policy Shift
Ethereum fell 0.76 percent in the first fifteen minutes after the Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The price was 2.39 percent lower after one hour while the high-to-low range reached 4.44 percent of the prevailing level, up from 1.4 percent in the prior hour.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 2.76x and a volume ratio of 6.50x, both below the event medians of 4.18x and 7.50x. These readings classify the move as muted relative to the 4.18x median volatility ratio observed across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021.
Rate changes have produced a 5.50x median volatility ratio for Ethereum in the past, yet this outcome registered only 2.76x even though the target range was altered. The release consisted of a statement and press conference without projections or a dot plot, which may help explain why the price action remained contained against the event's own record.
Traders reviewing future meetings of this type can observe that a policy adjustment does not guarantee elevated volatility when the usual forward-looking elements are omitted from the communication.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
4,026.98Close
3,916.6224h Change
-110.36 (-2.82%)24h High
4,036.6624h Low
3,839.5024h Volume
550,834 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
29th October, 2025, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 4004.50 | 4016.02 | 4004.15 | 4013.80 | 0.23% | 0.30% | 918 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4015.45 | 3981.28 | 4010.09 | -0.09% | 0.85% | 6,557 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4003.20 | 4016.02 | 3999.25 | 4013.80 | 0.26% | 0.42% | 1,711 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3981.28 | 3999.13 | -0.36% | 0.93% | 13,065 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4005.69 | 4016.02 | 3999.25 | 4013.80 | 0.20% | 0.42% | 3,019 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3974.77 | 3992.54 | -0.53% | 1.09% | 19,632 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4004.30 | 4016.02 | 3996.62 | 4013.80 | 0.24% | 0.48% | 5,128 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3974.77 | 3983.13 | -0.77% | 1.09% | 21,092 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3966.98 | 4016.02 | 3964.81 | 4013.80 | 1.17% | 1.28% | 14,366 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3974.77 | 3992.19 | -0.54% | 1.09% | 25,405 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3962.20 | 4016.02 | 3959.83 | 4013.80 | 1.29% | 1.40% | 20,054 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3840.37 | 3917.90 | -2.45% | 4.43% | 119,298 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3951.72 | 4016.02 | 3926.00 | 4013.80 | 1.55% | 2.24% | 68,411 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3840.37 | 3905.71 | -2.76% | 4.43% | 152,636 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3995.16 | 4016.02 | 3926.00 | 4013.80 | 0.46% | 2.24% | 116,161 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3840.37 | 3956.76 | -1.44% | 4.43% | 183,991 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4011.01 | 4029.41 | 3926.00 | 4013.80 | 0.07% | 2.57% | 144,753 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3840.37 | 3902.99 | -2.84% | 4.43% | 221,795 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4026.98 | 4036.66 | 3983.14 | 3995.17 | -0.80% | 1.33% | 86,282 ETH |
| During | 3995.16 | 4018.46 | 3840.37 | 3956.76 | -0.97% | 4.43% | 300,153 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4026.98 | 4036.66 | 3926.00 | 4013.80 | -0.33% | 2.74% | 202,444 ETH |
| During | 4013.70 | 4018.46 | 3839.50 | 3916.62 | -2.48% | 4.45% | 348,391 ETH |
