Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.66x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.23x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $39,170.64 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.93% lower, and an hour later 1.18% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.66% of its price, against 1.82% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 16 June 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 6.66x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin posted a strong reaction to the June 2021 Federal Open Market Committee decision, with a volatility ratio of 6.66x against the 4.29x median recorded across 46 releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 8.23x in the quarter hour of the announcement, well above the 5.81x benchmark for this event type. The price stood at $39,170.64 at the 2:00 PM release and fell 0.93 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.18 percent within the hour, while the high-to-low range widened to 3.66 percent from 1.82 percent in the prior hour.
The outcome arrived as a hold at the 0.00-0.25 percent target range. Yet the volatility ratio exceeded the 3.31x median observed for the 28 holds in the sample and also surpassed the 5.37x median attached to the 18 changes since 2021. Clometrix therefore classifies the move as strong relative to the event's own history.
Traders monitoring future rate decisions may note that even unchanged policy can generate outsized price action when accompanied by updated projections and the dot plot, particularly when the market has positioned for continuity.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
40,251.30Close
38,709.9924h Change
-1541.31 (-3.98%)24h High
40,527.1424h Low
38,116.0124h Volume
87,263 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
16th June, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 39105.59 | 39240.00 | 39094.12 | 39170.46 | 0.17% | 0.37% | 150 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39170.64 | 38555.84 | 38626.34 | -1.41% | 1.57% | 497 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38941.82 | 39240.00 | 38920.01 | 39170.46 | 0.58% | 0.82% | 281 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38540.03 | 39350.38 | 0.46% | 3.01% | 3,066 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38941.94 | 39240.00 | 38918.25 | 39170.46 | 0.58% | 0.82% | 521 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38540.03 | 39124.19 | -0.12% | 3.01% | 3,986 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38925.31 | 39240.00 | 38852.53 | 39170.46 | 0.63% | 0.99% | 662 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38401.00 | 38807.68 | -0.94% | 3.36% | 5,875 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38741.14 | 39240.00 | 38735.55 | 39170.46 | 1.10% | 1.29% | 1,574 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38301.68 | 38508.06 | -1.72% | 3.61% | 8,170 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 38668.04 | 39240.00 | 38526.88 | 39170.46 | 1.28% | 1.82% | 3,234 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38301.68 | 38709.35 | -1.19% | 3.61% | 10,586 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 38775.66 | 39311.74 | 38415.00 | 39170.46 | 1.01% | 2.28% | 9,077 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38301.68 | 38680.11 | -1.27% | 3.61% | 14,037 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39229.40 | 39368.74 | 38415.00 | 39170.46 | -0.15% | 2.42% | 16,501 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38301.68 | 38766.72 | -1.04% | 3.61% | 18,458 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39080.01 | 39504.99 | 38415.00 | 39170.46 | 0.23% | 2.76% | 25,541 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38116.01 | 38349.01 | -2.14% | 4.08% | 24,208 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40251.30 | 40527.14 | 38870.00 | 39229.39 | -2.60% | 4.09% | 32,662 BTC |
| During | 39229.40 | 39735.52 | 38301.68 | 38766.72 | -1.19% | 3.61% | 34,959 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40251.30 | 40527.14 | 38415.00 | 39170.46 | -2.76% | 5.21% | 49,163 BTC |
| During | 39170.64 | 39735.52 | 38116.01 | 38709.99 | -1.19% | 4.08% | 38,100 BTC |
