Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 13 December 2023 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $42,127.45 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.6% higher, and an hour later 1.44% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.8% of its price, against 0.49% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.87x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.77x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.87x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a muted reaction to the Federal Reserve decision that left the target range unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The price rose 0.6 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 1.44 percent after one hour, while the hourly high-to-low range reached 1.8 percent of the starting level at $42,127.45.
This performance sat below the 3.31x median volatility ratio observed across the twenty-eight prior holds since 2021. The recorded 2.87x ratio and 3.77x volume ratio both remained beneath the respective event medians of 4.29x and 5.81x, confirming the classification of a subdued move relative to the release type.
Decisions that altered the policy rate have aligned with a higher median volatility ratio of 5.37x across eighteen cases. The gap between that benchmark and the outcome here illustrates how the absence of a rate change coincided with restrained trading activity even by the standards of prior holds.
Traders reviewing upcoming instances of the same event may observe that unchanged settings have tended to produce smaller volatility multiples than adjustments, although the range of outcomes within the hold category itself shows meaningful variation from one release to the next.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
40,866.00Close
42,905.9924h Change
2039.99 (4.75%)24h High
43,475.2024h Low
40,800.0024h Volume
43,705 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
13th December, 2023, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 42113.19 | 42140.00 | 42091.10 | 42127.44 | 0.03% | 0.12% | 40 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 42286.39 | 42127.44 | 42278.19 | 0.36% | 0.38% | 197 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42111.09 | 42140.00 | 42091.10 | 42127.44 | 0.04% | 0.12% | 91 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 42395.40 | 42127.44 | 42367.95 | 0.57% | 0.63% | 607 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42106.18 | 42140.00 | 42075.30 | 42127.44 | 0.05% | 0.15% | 156 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 42426.00 | 42127.44 | 42374.84 | 0.58% | 0.70% | 933 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42092.40 | 42140.00 | 42075.30 | 42127.44 | 0.08% | 0.15% | 222 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 42471.10 | 42127.44 | 42380.32 | 0.60% | 0.81% | 1,285 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 42027.46 | 42140.00 | 41988.20 | 42127.44 | 0.24% | 0.36% | 571 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 42471.10 | 42127.44 | 42389.22 | 0.62% | 0.81% | 2,058 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 42118.60 | 42196.00 | 41988.20 | 42127.44 | 0.02% | 0.49% | 1,551 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 42886.00 | 42127.44 | 42734.01 | 1.42% | 1.77% | 4,427 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 41870.02 | 42196.00 | 41814.16 | 42127.44 | 0.61% | 0.90% | 3,453 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 42888.00 | 42127.44 | 42874.87 | 1.74% | 1.77% | 7,000 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 41432.00 | 42215.63 | 41430.19 | 42127.44 | 1.65% | 1.86% | 10,202 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 43475.20 | 42127.44 | 42962.41 | 1.94% | 3.10% | 13,040 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 41209.26 | 42215.63 | 41184.60 | 42127.44 | 2.18% | 2.44% | 13,382 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 43475.20 | 42127.44 | 42788.85 | 1.55% | 3.10% | 16,604 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40866.00 | 41490.00 | 40800.00 | 41432.00 | 1.37% | 1.66% | 10,273 BTC |
| During | 41432.00 | 43475.20 | 41430.19 | 42962.41 | 3.56% | 4.70% | 23,243 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40866.00 | 42215.63 | 40800.00 | 42127.44 | 2.99% | 3.35% | 20,476 BTC |
| During | 42127.45 | 43475.20 | 42127.44 | 42905.99 | 1.81% | 3.10% | 23,230 BTC |
