Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 April 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.33x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.11x, against a typical 7.50x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,712.85 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.51% higher, and an hour later 0.42% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.14% of its price, against 1.1% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 1.33x compares with 3.49x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. Ethereum registered a volatility ratio of 1.33x in the quarter hour after the announcement, well below the 4.18x median recorded for Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume barely moved, posting a 1.11x ratio against a typical 7.50x. Both readings fall below the 1.5x threshold that Clometrix associates with any noticeable market reaction.
Context of a rate hold
Since 2021, releases that altered the target range have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.50x for Ethereum, compared with 3.49x when the range was left unchanged. The 1.33x outcome on this occasion therefore sits below the historical pattern for holds. Price action remained contained, rising 0.51 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.42 percent after one hour, while the hourly high-to-low range widened only to 1.14 percent from 1.1 percent beforehand.
Traders can note that this particular decision arrived without updated projections or a dot plot. The muted response aligns with the broader record that unchanged policy statements tend to coincide with smaller price ranges than those that shift the target range. Future releases of the same type may therefore warrant attention mainly when the statement signals an actual change in the funds rate.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,616.87Close
2,718.1824h Change
101.31 (3.73%)24h High
2,760.0024h Low
2,559.4424h Volume
989,084 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
28th April, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2711.05 | 2713.50 | 2710.88 | 2712.84 | 0.07% | 0.10% | 277 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2719.60 | 2712.84 | 2714.27 | 0.05% | 0.25% | 687 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2710.37 | 2713.71 | 2709.00 | 2712.84 | 0.09% | 0.17% | 1,041 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2720.83 | 2710.00 | 2718.44 | 0.21% | 0.40% | 2,730 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2711.54 | 2713.71 | 2706.18 | 2712.84 | 0.05% | 0.28% | 3,209 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2729.01 | 2710.00 | 2726.13 | 0.49% | 0.70% | 4,999 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2723.19 | 2723.71 | 2706.18 | 2712.84 | -0.38% | 0.64% | 5,754 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2737.31 | 2710.00 | 2726.75 | 0.51% | 1.00% | 9,342 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2726.28 | 2730.00 | 2706.18 | 2712.84 | -0.50% | 0.87% | 14,504 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2737.88 | 2710.00 | 2727.28 | 0.53% | 1.02% | 16,512 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2716.53 | 2730.00 | 2700.18 | 2712.84 | -0.14% | 1.09% | 28,370 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2737.88 | 2707.00 | 2724.20 | 0.42% | 1.13% | 28,855 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2681.02 | 2730.00 | 2667.55 | 2712.84 | 1.17% | 2.29% | 64,857 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2744.00 | 2707.00 | 2737.97 | 0.92% | 1.35% | 62,303 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2705.25 | 2730.00 | 2658.04 | 2712.84 | 0.28% | 2.64% | 154,096 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2760.00 | 2665.55 | 2755.67 | 1.55% | 3.42% | 179,357 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2692.05 | 2734.96 | 2658.04 | 2712.84 | 0.77% | 2.81% | 278,125 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2760.00 | 2665.55 | 2748.24 | 1.29% | 3.42% | 234,131 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2616.87 | 2734.96 | 2559.44 | 2705.24 | 3.27% | 6.42% | 407,396 ETH |
| During | 2705.25 | 2760.00 | 2658.04 | 2755.67 | 1.83% | 3.69% | 333,453 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2616.87 | 2734.96 | 2559.44 | 2712.84 | 3.54% | 6.42% | 561,492 ETH |
| During | 2712.85 | 2760.00 | 2665.55 | 2718.18 | 0.20% | 3.42% | 427,592 ETH |
