BTC Volatility Analysis for Fed Interest Rate, 28th April 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 April 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.78x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.89x, against a typical 5.81x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $54,838.73 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.14% higher, and an hour later 0.17% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.78% of its price, against 0.83% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 0.78x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision that left the target range unchanged at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. Volatility reached only 0.78x in the quarter hour after the 2:00 PM release, far below the 4.29x median observed across 46 comparable announcements since 2021. Volume remained near normal at 0.89x against the event typical of 5.81x. The price rose 0.14 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.17 percent after one hour, while the hourly high-to-low range stayed essentially flat at 0.78 percent.

The limited movement matched the broader record that rate holds generate smaller price swings than adjustments. Median volatility across the 28 holds since 2021 measured 3.31x, compared with 5.37x on the 18 occasions when the target was altered. This release therefore produced less movement than even the subdued benchmark associated with unchanged policy.

The absence of projections and a dot plot at the meeting coincided with the muted response. Releases that merely confirm an existing stance have historically coincided with lower volatility ratios than those that alter the target, though the pattern does not establish a fixed relationship for future statements.

Traders reviewing the next policy decision can observe that a hold alone has tended to limit Bitcoin volatility relative to the event median, yet each announcement still requires evaluation against contemporaneous market conditions rather than reliance on any historical average.

About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

54,599.24

53,896.92

24h Change

-702.32 (-1.30%)

24h High

56,428.00

24h Low

53,482.22

24h Volume

54,132 BTC

US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Federal Open Market Committee

28th April, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	54817.52	54847.00	54817.52	54838.72	0.04%	0.05%	17 BTC
During	54838.73	54885.00	54801.02	54808.84	-0.05%	0.15%	18 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	54810.42	54860.00	54800.00	54838.72	0.05%	0.11%	71 BTC
During	54838.73	54926.62	54782.45	54863.91	0.05%	0.26%	145 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	54837.67	54860.00	54759.12	54838.72	0.00%	0.18%	229 BTC
During	54838.73	54984.00	54782.45	54953.94	0.21%	0.37%	282 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	54963.13	54963.13	54759.12	54838.72	-0.23%	0.37%	355 BTC
During	54838.73	54984.00	54782.45	54915.55	0.14%	0.37%	398 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	54779.79	54975.45	54759.12	54838.72	0.11%	0.39%	716 BTC
During	54838.73	55070.00	54782.45	54884.91	0.08%	0.52%	801 BTC

1 Hour
Before	54704.75	54975.45	54523.00	54838.72	0.24%	0.82%	1,392 BTC
During	54838.73	55070.00	54643.45	54933.76	0.17%	0.77%	1,667 BTC

2 Hours
Before	54338.14	54975.45	54245.33	54838.72	0.91%	1.33%	3,111 BTC
During	54838.73	55432.00	54643.45	55411.97	1.03%	1.42%	3,429 BTC

4 Hours
Before	54780.01	54975.45	54111.11	54838.72	0.11%	1.57%	7,034 BTC
During	54838.73	56428.00	54002.00	54801.34	-0.07%	4.30%	12,454 BTC

6 Hours
Before	54853.26	55327.00	54111.11	54838.72	-0.03%	2.20%	11,498 BTC
During	54838.73	56428.00	54002.00	54846.22	0.01%	4.30%	14,976 BTC

8 Hours
Before	54599.24	55327.00	53813.16	54780.00	0.33%	2.74%	19,795 BTC
During	54780.01	56428.00	54002.00	54801.34	0.04%	4.30%	19,489 BTC

12 Hours
Before	54599.24	55327.00	53813.16	54838.72	0.44%	2.74%	26,829 BTC
During	54838.73	56428.00	53482.22	53896.92	-1.75%	5.22%	27,303 BTC