Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 1 May 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,921.92 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.53% higher, and an hour later 2.33% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.34% of its price, against 2.22% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.73x, against 4.18x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.09x, against a typical 7.50x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Ethereum more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.50x across 18, against 3.49x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.73x compares with 3.49x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 4.18x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The volatility ratio reached 3.73 times normal activity, below the 4.18 times median recorded across 46 prior releases since 2021, while volume expanded 8.09 times against a typical 7.50 times multiplier.
Because the committee left rates unchanged, the move aligned closely with the 3.49 times median volatility observed in 28 similar holdings. Releases that altered the target instead produced a higher 5.50 times median across 18 instances, placing this outcome squarely in line with the record for unchanged decisions.
Price rose 1.53 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 2.33 percent within the hour, with a high-to-low range of 3.34 percent against 2.22 percent beforehand. The pattern indicates that policy statements without rate adjustments tend to generate contained responses relative to those that shift the target.
Traders preparing for the next statement can note that holds have consistently coincided with lower volatility ratios than changes, though each release still carries its own surrounding conditions.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,995.00Close
2,916.0624h Change
-78.94 (-2.71%)24h High
3,015.7324h Low
2,817.0024h Volume
647,038 ETHUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
1st May, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2923.05 | 2923.80 | 2921.66 | 2921.92 | -0.04% | 0.07% | 307 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 2929.41 | 2918.14 | 2927.99 | 0.21% | 0.38% | 1,076 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2927.61 | 2933.63 | 2918.32 | 2921.92 | -0.19% | 0.52% | 3,172 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 2965.95 | 2918.14 | 2965.00 | 1.45% | 1.61% | 15,035 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2910.20 | 2933.63 | 2906.85 | 2921.92 | 0.40% | 0.91% | 6,942 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 2978.60 | 2918.14 | 2969.39 | 1.60% | 2.03% | 29,091 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2902.25 | 2933.63 | 2899.80 | 2921.92 | 0.67% | 1.15% | 8,567 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 2978.60 | 2918.14 | 2966.60 | 1.51% | 2.03% | 33,119 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2895.19 | 2933.63 | 2892.60 | 2921.92 | 0.91% | 1.40% | 12,035 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 2978.60 | 2918.14 | 2966.20 | 1.49% | 2.03% | 43,206 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2891.00 | 2933.63 | 2868.72 | 2921.92 | 1.06% | 2.21% | 19,073 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 3015.73 | 2918.14 | 2990.04 | 2.28% | 3.24% | 89,486 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2885.46 | 2933.63 | 2868.72 | 2921.92 | 1.25% | 2.21% | 34,281 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 3015.73 | 2909.97 | 2926.06 | 0.14% | 3.51% | 138,162 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2889.64 | 2933.63 | 2865.91 | 2921.92 | 1.10% | 2.31% | 71,081 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 3015.73 | 2909.97 | 2967.99 | 1.55% | 3.51% | 169,564 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2905.40 | 2934.00 | 2865.91 | 2921.92 | 0.57% | 2.32% | 110,324 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 3015.73 | 2909.97 | 2972.46 | 1.70% | 3.51% | 191,170 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2995.00 | 2997.11 | 2817.00 | 2889.64 | -3.65% | 6.01% | 289,417 ETH |
| During | 2889.64 | 3015.73 | 2865.91 | 2967.99 | 2.64% | 4.97% | 240,644 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2995.00 | 2997.11 | 2817.00 | 2921.92 | -2.50% | 6.01% | 360,497 ETH |
| During | 2921.92 | 3015.73 | 2893.26 | 2916.06 | -0.20% | 4.06% | 286,541 ETH |
