Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 21 November 2018 at 8:30 AM EST. Durable Goods Orders came in at -3.7% for October 2018, against 0.9% in September 2018. Durable goods orders are falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.79x, against 1.45x for a typical Durable Orders release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.89x, against a typical 1.59x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $4,641.85 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.35% higher, and an hour later 1.84% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.1% of its price, against 1.38% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Durable Orders releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.48x across 19, against 1.43x across 49. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.79x compares with 1.43x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
About Durable Goods Orders
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Durable Goods Orders report every month. Durable goods orders reflect new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting manufactured goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. The change in the total value of new orders is measured and shared with the public in two releases per month: the advance report on durable goods and the manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
4,445.58Close
4,673.9024h Change
228.32 (4.88%)24h High
4,787.2024h Low
4,415.0124h Volume
58,027 BTCUS Durable Goods Orders
Bureau of Census
21st November, 2018, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 4636.78 | 4641.99 | 4635.24 | 4641.88 | 0.11% | 0.15% | 19 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4649.97 | 4639.03 | 4649.95 | 0.17% | 0.24% | 24 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4644.46 | 4649.09 | 4633.82 | 4641.88 | -0.06% | 0.33% | 142 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4659.63 | 4635.87 | 4656.90 | 0.32% | 0.51% | 265 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4647.00 | 4649.55 | 4633.82 | 4641.88 | -0.11% | 0.34% | 306 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4672.09 | 4635.87 | 4667.00 | 0.54% | 0.78% | 384 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4664.97 | 4666.04 | 4633.82 | 4641.88 | -0.50% | 0.69% | 456 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4672.09 | 4635.87 | 4657.97 | 0.35% | 0.78% | 470 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4680.97 | 4682.66 | 4633.82 | 4641.88 | -0.84% | 1.04% | 794 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4672.09 | 4537.70 | 4562.52 | -1.74% | 2.88% | 1,945 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 4657.50 | 4697.96 | 4633.82 | 4641.88 | -0.34% | 1.37% | 1,563 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4672.09 | 4528.26 | 4556.24 | -1.88% | 3.08% | 3,511 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4674.16 | 4697.96 | 4605.08 | 4641.88 | -0.70% | 1.98% | 3,564 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4672.09 | 4521.83 | 4616.03 | -0.56% | 3.22% | 6,004 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4755.00 | 4787.20 | 4605.08 | 4641.88 | -2.44% | 3.80% | 9,715 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4672.09 | 4506.00 | 4526.92 | -2.54% | 3.55% | 11,195 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4621.85 | 4787.20 | 4590.00 | 4641.88 | 0.43% | 4.12% | 16,829 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4672.09 | 4506.00 | 4545.18 | -2.13% | 3.55% | 14,409 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4445.58 | 4776.90 | 4415.01 | 4756.40 | 6.53% | 7.58% | 20,703 BTC |
| During | 4755.00 | 4787.20 | 4506.00 | 4526.92 | -5.04% | 5.87% | 20,911 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4445.58 | 4787.20 | 4415.01 | 4641.88 | 4.23% | 7.77% | 30,419 BTC |
| During | 4641.85 | 4699.20 | 4469.84 | 4673.90 | 0.69% | 4.88% | 27,609 BTC |
