ETH Volatility Analysis for Durable Orders, 26th July 2018

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census on 26 July 2018 at 8:30 AM EDT. Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.3% for June 2018, against -0.3% in May 2018. Durable goods orders are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $475.15 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.28% higher, and an hour later 0.44% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.97% of its price, against 1.02% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.59x, against 1.34x for a typical Durable Orders release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.66x, against a typical 1.57x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Durable Orders releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.66x across 19, against 1.30x across 49. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 August rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.59x compares with 1.66x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 68 Durable Orders releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.34x.

About Durable Goods Orders

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Durable Goods Orders report every month. Durable goods orders reflect new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting manufactured goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. The change in the total value of new orders is measured and shared with the public in two releases per month: the advance report on durable goods and the manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders.