Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.40x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 14.29x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $30,798.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.45% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.15% of its price, against 0.4% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 July 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for June 2023, against 0.2% in May 2023. Consumer prices are rising at the same pace as before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 26 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 6.40x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Volatility reached 6.40x the normal quarter-hour level, well above the 4.28x median recorded across CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 14.29x against a typical 6.92x. The price opened the interval at $30,798.01, stayed flat after fifteen minutes, and stood 0.45 percent lower after one hour. The hourly high-to-low range widened to 1.15 percent from 0.4 percent in the preceding hour.
Timing relative to the Fed decision
The release fell fourteen days before the 26 July Federal Reserve meeting. CPI events in that window have carried a 4.75x median volatility ratio since 2021. The 6.40x ratio observed here exceeded that benchmark, indicating a larger move than the pre-FOMC pattern alone would imply.
Against the full record of seventy CPI releases since 2021, whose median volatility ratio stands at 4.28x, the episode supplies a clear reference point for traders assessing how similar prints may affect Bitcoin near future policy meetings.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
30,554.68Close
30,391.3324h Change
-163.35 (-0.54%)24h High
30,983.2524h Low
30,210.0024h Volume
37,962 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12th July, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 30800.01 | 30827.99 | 30794.00 | 30798.00 | -0.01% | 0.11% | 77 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30798.00 | 30948.01 | 0.48% | 0.60% | 963 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 30737.59 | 30833.33 | 30737.58 | 30798.00 | 0.20% | 0.31% | 393 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30690.90 | 30774.90 | -0.08% | 0.94% | 2,317 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 30729.74 | 30833.33 | 30729.74 | 30798.00 | 0.22% | 0.34% | 537 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30690.90 | 30842.00 | 0.14% | 0.94% | 3,066 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 30751.06 | 30833.33 | 30722.00 | 30798.00 | 0.15% | 0.36% | 647 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30690.90 | 30783.66 | -0.05% | 0.94% | 3,449 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 30776.25 | 30833.33 | 30722.00 | 30798.00 | 0.07% | 0.36% | 978 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30639.00 | 30721.17 | -0.25% | 1.11% | 4,784 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 30731.34 | 30833.33 | 30708.92 | 30798.00 | 0.22% | 0.40% | 1,604 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30627.96 | 30658.00 | -0.46% | 1.15% | 6,594 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 30700.43 | 30833.33 | 30656.00 | 30798.00 | 0.32% | 0.58% | 2,583 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30461.59 | 30732.00 | -0.21% | 1.68% | 10,824 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 30714.01 | 30833.33 | 30656.00 | 30798.00 | 0.27% | 0.58% | 4,003 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30422.62 | 30479.01 | -1.05% | 1.81% | 16,373 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 30741.29 | 30849.01 | 30656.00 | 30798.00 | 0.18% | 0.63% | 6,713 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30422.62 | 30498.47 | -0.98% | 1.81% | 18,774 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 30554.68 | 30849.01 | 30497.95 | 30714.01 | 0.52% | 1.14% | 7,712 BTC |
| During | 30714.01 | 30983.25 | 30422.62 | 30479.01 | -0.77% | 1.81% | 20,376 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 30554.68 | 30849.01 | 30497.95 | 30798.00 | 0.79% | 1.14% | 11,716 BTC |
| During | 30798.01 | 30983.25 | 30210.00 | 30391.33 | -1.34% | 2.50% | 26,247 BTC |
