Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 10.38x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.81x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $22,713.69 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 4.62% lower, and an hour later 6.07% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 6.78% of its price, against 1.36% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 September 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.1% for August 2022, against 0.0% in July 2022. Consumer prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 8 days before the Federal Reserve's 21 September rate decision. Its own ratio of 10.38x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Exceptional reaction exceeded pre-Fed median
Bitcoin registered an exceptional move on the August CPI release, with a volatility ratio of 10.38x against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021. The price fell 4.62% in the first fifteen minutes and 6.07% within the hour, while the hourly high-low range expanded to 6.78% from 1.36% beforehand. Volume rose only 4.81x, below the typical 6.92x for the event.
The print arrived eight days before the September FOMC decision, a timing that has coincided with larger Bitcoin reactions since 2021. Its volatility ratio nevertheless surpassed the 4.75x median observed for those pre-decision releases. The simultaneous release of core CPI at 0.5% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year meant the measured response reflected the combined data.
Traders preparing for the next CPI can observe that proximity to policy meetings has aligned with elevated volatility ratios, although the record shows wide dispersion around those medians and offers no basis for expecting any particular magnitude on future prints.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
22,148.41Close
20,197.2424h Change
-1951.17 (-9.66%)24h High
22,799.0024h Low
19,860.0024h Volume
430,433 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
13th September, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 22720.50 | 22725.27 | 22666.47 | 22713.69 | -0.03% | 0.26% | 660 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 21849.00 | 21990.65 | -3.29% | 4.17% | 3,406 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 22698.12 | 22790.73 | 22495.00 | 22713.69 | 0.07% | 1.30% | 4,367 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 21663.53 | 21913.52 | -3.65% | 4.98% | 9,104 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 22633.16 | 22790.73 | 22495.00 | 22713.69 | 0.35% | 1.30% | 6,068 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 21663.53 | 21798.43 | -4.20% | 4.98% | 13,934 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 22606.96 | 22790.73 | 22495.00 | 22713.69 | 0.47% | 1.30% | 7,546 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 21605.01 | 21664.12 | -4.84% | 5.24% | 17,959 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 22522.74 | 22790.73 | 22495.00 | 22713.69 | 0.84% | 1.30% | 12,520 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 21342.00 | 21398.32 | -6.15% | 6.39% | 31,447 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 22649.96 | 22790.73 | 22482.00 | 22713.69 | 0.28% | 1.35% | 23,105 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 21258.36 | 21335.26 | -6.46% | 6.76% | 46,977 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 22477.73 | 22790.73 | 22442.08 | 22713.69 | 1.04% | 1.53% | 41,436 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 21056.34 | 21200.22 | -7.14% | 7.64% | 76,160 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 22300.09 | 22790.73 | 22182.09 | 22713.69 | 1.82% | 2.67% | 72,220 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 20701.99 | 20738.29 | -9.53% | 9.20% | 126,589 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 22414.98 | 22790.73 | 22182.09 | 22713.69 | 1.32% | 2.67% | 110,424 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 20651.00 | 20711.71 | -9.67% | 9.42% | 158,171 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 22148.41 | 22627.00 | 22054.07 | 22300.09 | 0.68% | 2.53% | 113,139 BTC |
| During | 22300.09 | 22799.00 | 20701.99 | 20738.29 | -7.53% | 9.20% | 198,810 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 22148.41 | 22790.73 | 22054.07 | 22713.69 | 2.49% | 3.23% | 185,359 BTC |
| During | 22713.69 | 22799.00 | 19860.00 | 20197.24 | -12.46% | 12.89% | 245,074 BTC |
