BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 10th June 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 June 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.7% for May 2021, against 0.6% in April 2021. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.02x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.60x, against a typical 6.92x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $37,431.33 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.56% higher, and an hour later 0.37% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.45% of its price, against 1.6% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 16 June rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.02x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin showed almost no reaction to the May 2021 CPI print and the cluster of releases that arrived with it. Volatility reached only 1.02x its ordinary level in the quarter hour after 8:30 AM, while volume increased a modest 1.60x. Both figures sit well below the thresholds that mark a measurable response and far under the 4.28x median volatility and 6.92x median volume Clometrix records for CPI releases since 2021.

The timing offered every reason to expect stronger movement. The release came six days before the June FOMC decision, a window that has produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio across 28 prior CPI events. The actual 1.02x outcome therefore fell noticeably short of the pattern that normally accompanies pre-meeting inflation data.

Price action confirmed the muted profile. Bitcoin traded at $37,431.33 at the instant of release, rose 0.56 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.37 percent after one hour, while its high-low range actually contracted to 1.45 percent from 1.6 percent in the prior hour.

Traders watching upcoming CPI prints that fall near policy meetings can take the episode as a reminder that even favorable timing does not force a reaction when the data and surrounding releases fail to generate surprise.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

37,159.55

36,687.63

24h Change

-471.92 (-1.29%)

24h High

38,491.00

24h Low

35,782.00

24h Volume

108,173 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

10th June, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	37427.38	37477.20	37418.41	37431.34	0.01%	0.16%	122 BTC
During	37431.33	37575.97	37425.00	37542.64	0.30%	0.40%	293 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	37561.29	37563.05	37369.79	37431.34	-0.35%	0.51%	860 BTC
During	37431.33	37700.00	37425.00	37608.60	0.47%	0.73%	770 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	37566.89	37600.00	37369.79	37431.34	-0.36%	0.61%	1,310 BTC
During	37431.33	37720.40	37425.00	37557.25	0.34%	0.78%	1,064 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	37701.15	37749.98	37369.79	37431.34	-0.72%	1.01%	1,650 BTC
During	37431.33	37720.40	37425.00	37639.22	0.55%	0.78%	1,317 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	37819.27	37911.30	37369.79	37431.34	-1.04%	1.43%	2,726 BTC
During	37431.33	37965.91	37425.00	37771.90	0.90%	1.42%	3,038 BTC

1 Hour
Before	37878.75	37969.42	37369.79	37431.34	-1.20%	1.58%	4,609 BTC
During	37431.33	37965.91	37425.00	37571.64	0.37%	1.42%	4,603 BTC

2 Hours
Before	38154.57	38300.00	37369.79	37431.34	-1.93%	2.43%	10,564 BTC
During	37431.33	38198.23	37019.00	37317.02	-0.31%	3.09%	11,538 BTC

4 Hours
Before	36830.13	38491.00	36242.57	37431.34	1.61%	5.84%	31,192 BTC
During	37431.33	38198.23	36612.00	36734.08	-1.90%	4.15%	23,036 BTC

6 Hours
Before	36787.36	38491.00	36242.57	37431.34	1.72%	5.84%	36,571 BTC
During	37431.33	38198.23	36100.00	36740.74	-1.88%	5.49%	32,078 BTC

8 Hours
Before	37159.55	37450.00	36500.00	36830.13	-0.89%	2.54%	24,452 BTC
During	36830.13	38491.00	36242.57	36734.08	-0.26%	5.84%	54,228 BTC

12 Hours
Before	37159.55	38491.00	36242.57	37431.34	0.73%	5.84%	55,644 BTC
During	37431.33	38198.23	35782.00	36687.63	-2.03%	6.33%	52,529 BTC