Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.94x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.14x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $16,634.84 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 4.35% higher, and an hour later 5.98% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 7.53% of its price, against 1.4% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 November 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.6% for October 2022, against 0.4% in September 2022. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 7.94x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin posted a strong reaction to the October CPI release, posting volatility of 7.94x its normal quarter-hour range against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021. Volume rose 5.14x, below the event's typical 6.92x multiple.
Bitcoin traded at $16,634.84 at 8:30 AM EST and rose 4.35 percent within fifteen minutes and 5.98 percent within one hour, while its high-to-low range reached 7.53 percent of price against 1.4 percent in the preceding hour.
The release fell 33 days before the December FOMC meeting and therefore outside the two-week pre-decision window that has produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio since 2021, compared with 3.99x at other times. Even against that lower benchmark the observed 7.94x ratio stood out, showing the price excursion exceeded what timing alone would indicate. Traders reviewing future CPI releases can note that the October CPI release demonstrated how an above-consensus print can generate outsized volatility even when policy meetings are not imminent, though the record supplies no basis for expecting any particular magnitude from the next print.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
16,185.74Close
17,580.4824h Change
1394.74 (7.93%)24h High
18,199.0024h Low
16,044.6724h Volume
577,992 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10th November, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 16623.30 | 16665.21 | 16588.60 | 16634.84 | 0.07% | 0.46% | 705 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17384.37 | 16548.14 | 17371.73 | 4.24% | 4.81% | 4,282 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 16619.39 | 16665.21 | 16588.60 | 16634.84 | 0.09% | 0.46% | 2,032 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17800.00 | 16548.14 | 17445.49 | 4.65% | 7.03% | 14,684 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 16619.58 | 16673.00 | 16588.60 | 16634.84 | 0.09% | 0.51% | 3,489 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17800.00 | 16548.14 | 17192.15 | 3.24% | 7.03% | 22,346 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 16712.03 | 16716.19 | 16580.10 | 16634.84 | -0.46% | 0.81% | 5,894 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17800.00 | 16548.14 | 17359.13 | 4.17% | 7.03% | 27,143 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 16675.47 | 16775.47 | 16580.10 | 16634.84 | -0.24% | 1.16% | 10,867 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17800.00 | 16548.14 | 17650.93 | 5.76% | 7.03% | 45,068 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 16569.72 | 16775.47 | 16543.00 | 16634.84 | 0.39% | 1.39% | 24,360 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17800.00 | 16548.14 | 17629.11 | 5.64% | 7.03% | 63,734 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 16450.84 | 16897.47 | 16386.66 | 16634.84 | 1.11% | 3.02% | 55,534 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17960.04 | 16548.14 | 17660.88 | 5.81% | 7.86% | 98,487 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 16761.55 | 16897.47 | 16258.74 | 16634.84 | -0.76% | 3.78% | 99,424 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17989.00 | 16548.14 | 17706.23 | 6.05% | 8.01% | 151,285 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 16771.66 | 16959.99 | 16258.74 | 16634.84 | -0.82% | 4.13% | 150,123 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 17989.00 | 16548.14 | 17350.86 | 4.13% | 8.01% | 196,158 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 16185.74 | 16959.99 | 16044.67 | 16762.81 | 3.44% | 5.40% | 187,336 BTC |
| During | 16761.55 | 17989.00 | 16258.74 | 17706.23 | 5.34% | 9.62% | 250,709 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 16185.74 | 16959.99 | 16044.67 | 16634.84 | 2.70% | 5.40% | 286,760 BTC |
| During | 16634.84 | 18199.00 | 16548.14 | 17580.48 | 5.38% | 9.07% | 291,232 BTC |
