BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 13th October 2020

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 October 2020 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% for September 2020, against 0.4% in August 2020. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.77x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.29x, against a typical 6.92x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $11,484.17 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.53% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.96% of its price, against 0.54% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.77x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).