BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 15th January 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 January 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% for December 2024, against 0.3% in November 2024. Consumer prices are rising at the same pace as before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $97,286.60 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.26% higher, and an hour later 1.48% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.23% of its price, against 0.78% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.13x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 13.55x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 29 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 5.13x compares with 4.75x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the December CPI release by Clometrix classification. Its volatility ratio reached 5.13x, only modestly above the 4.28x median observed across 70 CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded 13.55x relative to a normal quarter hour that day, compared with a typical 6.92x multiple for the event.

The print arrived together with core CPI data showing 0.2 percent month-over-month and 3.2 percent year-over-year. Bitcoin stood at $97,286.60 at the 8:30 AM release and advanced 1.26 percent in the first fifteen minutes. Its high-low range in the following hour measured 2.23 percent of price, against 0.78 percent in the hour prior.

This release occurred fourteen days before the Federal Reserve's January 29 rate decision. CPI prints inside that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x since 2021, above the 3.99x median for releases at other times. The 5.13x outcome therefore aligned with the elevated historical response associated with pre-decision timing.

A trader reviewing the record can note that CPI releases close to Federal Reserve meetings have coincided with larger Bitcoin volatility ratios than those occurring farther from policy dates, without providing any basis for expectations around the next print.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

97,116.45

99,982.09

24h Change

2865.64 (2.87%)

24h High

100,866.66

24h Low

96,521.00

24h Volume

31,797 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

15th January, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	97244.37	97302.24	97242.01	97286.61	0.04%	0.06%	32 BTC
During	97286.60	98484.57	97276.91	98151.97	0.88%	1.23%	929 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	97224.68	97333.00	97224.68	97286.61	0.06%	0.11%	162 BTC
During	97286.60	98692.04	97276.91	98561.70	1.29%	1.43%	2,018 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	97014.06	97333.00	97014.06	97286.61	0.28%	0.33%	233 BTC
During	97286.60	98692.04	97276.91	98484.00	1.22%	1.43%	2,748 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	96944.33	97333.00	96852.38	97286.61	0.35%	0.49%	310 BTC
During	97286.60	98692.04	97276.91	98511.99	1.24%	1.43%	3,093 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	96942.92	97333.00	96852.38	97286.61	0.35%	0.49%	458 BTC
During	97286.60	99073.39	97276.91	98964.00	1.69%	1.81%	4,391 BTC

1 Hour
Before	96591.97	97333.00	96575.51	97286.61	0.71%	0.78%	862 BTC
During	97286.60	99451.00	97276.91	98729.41	1.46%	2.19%	6,128 BTC

2 Hours
Before	96641.11	97333.00	96539.77	97286.61	0.66%	0.81%	1,323 BTC
During	97286.60	99799.98	97276.91	99714.21	2.43%	2.53%	9,477 BTC

4 Hours
Before	96889.14	97333.00	96521.00	97286.61	0.41%	0.83%	2,632 BTC
During	97286.60	99799.98	97276.91	99102.01	1.83%	2.53%	12,396 BTC

6 Hours
Before	97539.57	97600.31	96521.00	97286.61	-0.26%	1.11%	4,111 BTC
During	97286.60	99799.98	97276.91	99365.92	2.09%	2.53%	14,465 BTC

8 Hours
Before	97116.45	97724.96	96746.71	96889.15	-0.23%	1.00%	6,161 BTC
During	96889.14	99799.98	96521.00	99102.01	2.23%	3.29%	15,028 BTC

12 Hours
Before	97116.45	97724.96	96521.00	97286.61	0.17%	1.23%	8,793 BTC
During	97286.60	100866.66	97276.91	99982.09	2.70%	3.56%	23,004 BTC