BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 10th October 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 October 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for September 2024, against 0.2% in August 2024. Consumer prices are rising at the same pace as before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $61,272.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.51% lower, and an hour later 0.21% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.93% of its price, against 0.3% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.80x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.56x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.80x compares with 3.99x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).