Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 12.09x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 9.44x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $18,788.72 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.46% lower, and an hour later 2.54% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.27% of its price, against 2% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 October 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.4% for September 2022, against 0.1% in August 2022. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 12.09x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the October 2022 CPI release. Volatility reached 12.09x in the quarter hour after publication, more than double the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded 9.44x against a typical 6.92x. The price fell from $18,788.72 to a 2.54 percent lower level within the first hour, while the hourly high-low range widened to 3.27 percent from 2 percent beforehand.
This event fell 19 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio for Bitcoin.
Against the 3.99x median observed for CPI releases at other times, the 12.09x outcome stood out. Clometrix classifies the move as one of the five largest Bitcoin reactions to CPI since 2021 by volatility ratio.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
19,156.28Close
19,425.6124h Change
269.33 (1.39%)24h High
19,513.7924h Low
18,190.0024h Volume
403,662 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
13th October, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 18753.88 | 19030.00 | 18703.00 | 18805.13 | 0.27% | 1.72% | 1,835 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 18805.16 | 18220.00 | 18242.59 | -2.99% | 3.11% | 4,074 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18712.84 | 19030.00 | 18666.98 | 18805.13 | 0.49% | 1.91% | 3,309 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 18805.16 | 18190.00 | 18351.29 | -2.38% | 3.27% | 13,780 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18743.42 | 19030.00 | 18666.98 | 18805.13 | 0.33% | 1.91% | 4,613 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 18805.16 | 18190.00 | 18417.74 | -2.01% | 3.27% | 20,854 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18736.40 | 19030.00 | 18666.98 | 18805.13 | 0.37% | 1.91% | 6,139 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 18805.16 | 18190.00 | 18326.00 | -2.52% | 3.27% | 25,751 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 18754.09 | 19030.00 | 18655.00 | 18805.13 | 0.27% | 1.97% | 10,330 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 18805.16 | 18190.00 | 18385.30 | -2.19% | 3.27% | 36,486 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 18713.62 | 19030.00 | 18655.00 | 18805.13 | 0.49% | 1.97% | 20,062 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 18805.16 | 18190.00 | 18310.57 | -2.61% | 3.27% | 49,309 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 18771.26 | 19030.00 | 18566.66 | 18805.13 | 0.18% | 2.43% | 42,774 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 18805.16 | 18190.00 | 18407.48 | -2.07% | 3.27% | 78,666 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19009.44 | 19038.90 | 18566.66 | 18805.13 | -1.09% | 2.48% | 64,981 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 19049.99 | 18190.00 | 18944.31 | 0.82% | 4.51% | 148,835 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19082.02 | 19087.40 | 18566.66 | 18805.13 | -1.47% | 2.73% | 91,000 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 19228.00 | 18190.00 | 19170.61 | 1.99% | 5.40% | 191,359 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19156.28 | 19167.16 | 18950.00 | 19009.44 | -0.77% | 1.13% | 67,015 BTC |
| During | 19009.44 | 19049.99 | 18190.00 | 18944.31 | -0.34% | 4.51% | 213,816 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19156.28 | 19167.16 | 18566.66 | 18805.13 | -1.87% | 3.13% | 131,996 BTC |
| During | 18788.72 | 19513.79 | 18190.00 | 19425.61 | 3.28% | 6.78% | 271,666 BTC |
