Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 9.29x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 13.42x, against a typical 6.92x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $39,328.16 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.91% lower, and an hour later 0.66% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.46% of its price, against 0.63% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 March 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.7% for February 2022, against 0.6% in January 2022. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation Rate, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 16 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 9.29x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.
What it means
Bitcoin's reaction to the 10 March 2022 CPI release stood out as exceptional against the event's own record. Volatility reached 9.29x in the quarter hour after the print, more than double the 4.28x median observed across CPI releases since 2021. Volume expanded 13.42x over the same interval, again exceeding the typical 6.92x multiple. The price fell 1.91 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.66 percent within the hour, while the high-low range widened to 4.46 percent from 0.63 percent beforehand.
The release arrived six days before the Federal Reserve's March policy decision and coincided with the core CPI print plus initial and continued claims. CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 4.75x since 2021, compared with 3.99x at other times. This instance surpassed even that pre-meeting benchmark, registering 9.29x against the 4.75x median for similar timing.
Across 70 CPI releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio stands at 4.28x. Traders monitoring the next CPI may therefore watch both the surprise relative to consensus and the number of days until the subsequent FOMC meeting, while recognizing that individual reactions can still deviate sharply from these historical patterns.
About Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
41,896.90Close
38,683.4424h Change
-3213.46 (-8.31%)24h High
41,919.7924h Low
38,539.7324h Volume
72,836 BTCUS Consumer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10th March, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 39289.99 | 39346.97 | 39289.99 | 39328.16 | 0.10% | 0.14% | 46 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 39800.00 | 39268.01 | 39767.12 | 1.10% | 1.34% | 723 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39300.01 | 39346.97 | 39255.92 | 39328.16 | 0.07% | 0.23% | 130 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 39268.01 | 39952.02 | 1.56% | 2.54% | 2,899 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39297.52 | 39346.97 | 39255.92 | 39328.16 | 0.08% | 0.23% | 319 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 39154.78 | 39312.87 | -0.04% | 2.82% | 4,654 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39230.81 | 39346.97 | 39220.90 | 39328.16 | 0.25% | 0.32% | 450 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 38576.05 | -1.95% | 4.35% | 6,864 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 39242.80 | 39346.97 | 39190.42 | 39328.16 | 0.22% | 0.40% | 798 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 38864.68 | -1.19% | 4.35% | 9,307 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 39210.34 | 39348.92 | 39102.50 | 39328.16 | 0.30% | 0.63% | 2,061 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 39067.56 | -0.67% | 4.35% | 10,943 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39042.70 | 39348.92 | 38957.20 | 39328.16 | 0.73% | 1.00% | 3,525 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 39196.61 | -0.34% | 4.35% | 16,027 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39139.66 | 39348.92 | 38942.55 | 39328.16 | 0.48% | 1.03% | 7,323 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 39224.52 | -0.26% | 4.35% | 20,640 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39287.71 | 39399.39 | 38782.14 | 39328.16 | 0.10% | 1.57% | 12,780 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 39267.16 | -0.16% | 4.35% | 23,874 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 41896.90 | 41919.79 | 38782.14 | 39139.66 | -7.04% | 7.48% | 32,605 BTC |
| During | 39139.66 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 39224.52 | 0.22% | 4.35% | 27,963 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 41896.90 | 41919.79 | 38782.14 | 39328.16 | -6.53% | 7.48% | 39,928 BTC |
| During | 39328.16 | 40292.44 | 38539.73 | 38683.44 | -1.67% | 4.35% | 32,908 BTC |
