BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 15th July 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 July 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% for June 2025, against 0.1% in May 2025. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $116,909.62 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.32% lower, and an hour later 0.67% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.47% of its price, against 0.75% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.88x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.48x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.88x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Smaller Move Outside Policy Window

Bitcoin recorded a muted reaction to the June CPI release, posting a volatility ratio of 2.88x against the 4.28x median across 70 CPI prints since 2021. The price stood at $116,909.62 at 8:30 AM, then fell 0.32% in the first fifteen minutes and rose 0.67% after one hour, with a high-to-low range of 1.47% in the post-release hour versus 0.75% beforehand. Volume expanded just 2.48x, well below the 6.92x typical for the event.

The release printed 0.3% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in May, and arrived alongside core CPI figures of 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year. It came fourteen days before the Federal Reserve's 30 July decision, placing it outside the two-week pre-meeting window where the median volatility ratio has reached 4.75x.

Releases timed away from imminent policy meetings have coincided with lower volatility ratios than the overall 4.28x median. The 2.88x outcome here fell below even the 3.99x median observed for non-window CPI events.

Traders monitoring the next CPI may observe that timing relative to Federal Reserve meetings has aligned with differences in Bitcoin's volatility response, though past medians describe only what occurred in prior instances.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

119,880.75

117,584.27

24h Change

-2296.48 (-1.95%)

24h High

119,880.75

24h Low

115,736.92

24h Volume

31,999 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

15th July, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	116929.39	116938.53	116859.19	116909.62	-0.02%	0.07%	24 BTC
During	116909.62	117360.54	116909.62	117287.99	0.32%	0.38%	162 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	116954.98	116970.82	116859.19	116909.62	-0.04%	0.10%	84 BTC
During	116909.62	117466.52	116909.62	117411.90	0.43%	0.47%	269 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	116975.47	117000.00	116859.19	116909.62	-0.06%	0.12%	121 BTC
During	116909.62	117466.52	116800.00	116928.26	0.02%	0.57%	434 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	117076.70	117131.70	116859.19	116909.62	-0.14%	0.23%	165 BTC
During	116909.62	117466.52	116417.00	116533.55	-0.32%	0.89%	655 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	117113.98	117318.47	116859.19	116909.62	-0.17%	0.39%	381 BTC
During	116909.62	117466.52	116417.00	117204.18	0.25%	0.89%	1,084 BTC

1 Hour
Before	116474.99	117318.47	116440.72	116909.62	0.37%	0.75%	725 BTC
During	116909.62	118132.60	116417.00	117688.39	0.66%	1.45%	2,139 BTC

2 Hours
Before	116999.99	117318.47	116338.30	116909.62	-0.08%	0.84%	1,557 BTC
During	116909.62	118490.71	116417.00	117566.70	0.56%	1.75%	4,105 BTC

4 Hours
Before	116830.01	117318.47	116338.30	116909.62	0.07%	0.84%	3,476 BTC
During	116909.62	118490.71	115736.92	116876.00	-0.03%	2.32%	9,025 BTC

6 Hours
Before	117037.62	117318.47	116300.00	116909.62	-0.11%	0.87%	5,875 BTC
During	116909.62	118490.71	115736.92	116785.99	-0.11%	2.32%	11,779 BTC

8 Hours
Before	119880.75	119880.75	116250.00	116830.00	-2.61%	3.03%	12,367 BTC
During	116830.01	118490.71	115736.92	116876.00	0.04%	2.32%	12,501 BTC

12 Hours
Before	119880.75	119880.75	116250.00	116909.62	-2.54%	3.03%	15,843 BTC
During	116909.62	118490.71	115736.92	117584.27	0.57%	2.32%	16,156 BTC